5/n But something that is quite well reported and recorded at all times is deaths Here's the breakdown of deaths by age until mid-September in the US Immediately, something springs outpic.twitter.com/5BIzPMu3p8
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16/n Another point - people have said that this is flawed because the IFR in the second wave is less than that of the first If you reduce the IFRs in the second wave by 35%, this is what the graph looks like. Still not very different!pic.twitter.com/cuE89EVxps
There is also another important takeaway specifically for the US. Each State had a different dynamic so all in all the averaging effect is not something that should be taken lightly either. Agree with you, there is no evidence the disease had changed at all.
Yes absolutely. I suspect that the peak in the first wave was early March and probably almost entirely centred in the North East, while the second wave was much more spread out across the country and had a longer peak that led into the third wave
Only thing I would add here is that the US will have marked immunologic variation geographically. In Los Angeles we may be at 5% prevalence but Tampa could be at 20%. With no national response we are left with 1000s of independent and unique outbreak pockets.
If you look at death relative to hospitalization, there does seem to be a huge improvement for the second wave. I don't think the disease itself became less deadly, but it makes sense to think that in the first wave, hospitals were quickly overburdened and the ensuing chaos
led to a lot of avoidable deaths. As you may well know, IFR is neither constant across region or time. So in that sense, using a constant IFR to estimate the cases is kind of starting with your conclusion as assumption and working backwards.
@youyanggu assumes a modest decline in IFR over time due to improved treatment. So his case estimates are slightly higher for later waves. But as you say, not that different.
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