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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 25 Oct 2020

    Health Nerd Retweeted mike johansen

    I think we now have more than enough direct evidence to demonstrate that those who proposed herd immunity thresholds at 10-20% infection rates based on modelling exercises were simply wronghttps://twitter.com/mikejohansenmd/status/1320453089875447810 …

    Health Nerd added,

    mike johansen @mikejohansenmd
    If you were banking on lowish "herd immunity" threshold; this should give you some pause. This is Italy's cases over the last 14 days. pic.twitter.com/PV17tM4M1k
    3:07 PM - 25 Oct 2020
    • 42 Retweets
    • 188 Likes
    • Sharpe Actuary Ben Filialleiter Dr Sam Holly Marjorie, mildly relieved MPH (she/her) 🇺🇲 The Last Centurion CWebb0412 Andreas Manner
    13 replies 42 retweets 188 likes
      1. Kawasaki_KR-1‏ @KawasakiKR11 25 Oct 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        That happens. You just have to revise your models. That's how science works (but not politics, obviously).

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. E. Rosalie‏ @NovelSci 25 Oct 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        This gives more evidence too. Props to Dr Monica Gandhi. She looked at it through extensive work examining the impact of masks, infection, and herd immunity. Showed even 30+% couldn't curb the spread.https://johnshopkinssph.libsyn.com/142-asymptomatic-infection-with-covid-19 …

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      1. Chris #GetVaccinated‏ @scorp99cam 25 Oct 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Chris #GetVaccinated Retweeted

        You would think, but now they’re back to ignoring what’s happening in Europe and for some reason assuming it can’t happen here. Just like in March. It never ends. https://twitter.com/ScottWAtlas/status/1320466955061596161 …

        Chris #GetVaccinated added,

        This Tweet is unavailable.
        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Julia L Bach‏ @JuliaLBach8 25 Oct 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Are you looking for zero COVID or fewer deaths?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Elaine G‏ @snutteplutten 25 Oct 2020
        Replying to @GidMK @YoniFreedhoff

        Nothing quite so unhelpful as a chart with out column headings.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. clotbuster‏ @clotbuster1 25 Oct 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Any threshold will be inaccurate because of the nature of transmissibility of this virus. This is the link to one of the best articles I found about it.https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/ …

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Andy Waddington‏ @andywaddington 25 Oct 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Numbers with no context, seriously what is this?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. o rly?‏ @Reasonableques3 25 Oct 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Also note Belgium It was a nice piece of wishful thinking for a while, I guess

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. James Griffin‏ @spawnofKahn 25 Oct 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Yes... and no... right? Most of these models neglected to factor in seasonality fully (some folk even presumed it wouldn’t make a difference at all). So... if Rt fluctuates by a factor of x, the HIT threshold should change in tandem — which is probably what we’re seeing.

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. James Griffin‏ @spawnofKahn 25 Oct 2020
        Replying to @spawnofKahn @GidMK

        Ab extensio, it was possible for Sweden (well... Stockholm and Västra Götaland) to simultaneously be at the HIT during summer, while being substantially below the fall/winter HIT.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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