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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Liska  🌸‏ @NewMumOnline 23 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @MichaelYeadon3 @MLevitt_NP2013

      https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/infectious-positive-pcr-test-result-covid-19/ …

      1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Oct 2020
      Replying to @NewMumOnline

      There's a fascinating question in how people have so completely misrepresented terms to the point where a very recent infection that could still be infectious has been defined a "false positive", but it is still factual to say that the overwhelming majority of positives are true

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    3. Liska  🌸‏ @NewMumOnline 23 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      I'm not talking about a person previously infectious (even as long as 9 weeks ago like the Brit boys stuck in Florence demonstrated). That's a cycle threshold issue as well u know. I'm talking about a real scientific false positive which becomes more likely when prevalence is low

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Oct 2020
      Replying to @NewMumOnline

      Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

      And as I explained in the blog and elsewhere, given the extremely high specificity of the test, it's largely a non-issue, with 1 false positive for roughly every million tests donehttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1319126130666819584?s=19 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      Worth noting that this represents 607,559 COVID-19 tests with 226 positives, giving a positive rate of 0.0372% Even if EVERY TEST was a false positive, that gives a specificity of ~99.96% https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1319084436630073344 …
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    5. FamilyDoc‏ @FamDocJJ 23 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @NewMumOnline

      Those touting “high false positive’ issue need to look at low prevalence communities like Australia with the MILLIONS of tests done and the very low positive numbers of Covid.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    6. Clayton Clent‏ @ClaytonClent 23 Oct 2020
      Replying to @FamDocJJ @GidMK @NewMumOnline

      The response to this is that false pos is signif higher in high prevalence communities as the noninfectious RNA debri from resolved asymptomatic infections registers as a positive.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. FamilyDoc‏ @FamDocJJ 23 Oct 2020
      Replying to @ClaytonClent @GidMK @NewMumOnline

      Which is a non-infectious positive; this by definition is different to how a false positive is defined scientifically. False positives are more likely in low prevalence communities. Adding in non infectious positives to actual false positives is not scientifically correct

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    8. FamilyDoc‏ @FamDocJJ 23 Oct 2020
      Replying to @FamDocJJ @ClaytonClent and

      The same issue is observed for PCR in recently treated chlamydia infections which is why we don’t ‘test for cure” till at least 28 days after initial infection diagnosed

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    9. Clayton Clent‏ @ClaytonClent 23 Oct 2020
      Replying to @FamDocJJ @GidMK @NewMumOnline

      Agree. The argument presupposes that high Ct "positives" do not get retested. Is there data on median time of noninfectious positive ( with 95% CIs )?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. FamilyDoc‏ @FamDocJJ 23 Oct 2020
      Replying to @ClaytonClent @GidMK @NewMumOnline

      Others here more qualified to specifically address this. @DrZoeHyde @GidMK In Victoria we are not retesting initial positives. After isolation AND symptom resolution a negative test is not required. Different if ongoing symptoms though

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 23 Oct 2020
      Replying to @FamDocJJ @ClaytonClent and

      Given how few positives there are in NSW and the very large consequences to businesses etc, as well as the fact that most hotel quarantine have multiple tests anyway, virtually every positive is retested here afaik

      6:27 PM - 23 Oct 2020
      • 4 Likes
      • blah CocotheCanadianSocialistRat FamilyDoc Clayton Clent
      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. FamilyDoc‏ @FamDocJJ 23 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @ClaytonClent and

          I understand each state working differently re this. Given false negative rate though if ongoing symptoms a single negative test after an initial positive not v reassuring? I think Vic has taken this pragmatic approach re higher no’s overall though

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Di Williams  💙 #CovidIsAirborne‏ @100Dianne 23 Oct 2020
          Replying to @FamDocJJ @GidMK and

          At this stage it has to be the ring approach. A three layer ring, rings need to be instigated faster.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Clayton Clent‏ @ClaytonClent 23 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @FamDocJJ and

          Thank you. Basic lab culture means that the argument that high prevalence areas have higher false pos because of residual RNA debri is highly likely to be wrong. Would be nice to see numbers on median times (with 95% CIs) that you get debri shedding after replication has stopped

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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