How do you factor in behaviour fr ppl like me self-isolating since march, homeoffice, no kids, bc we are aware that our risk to be very ill or dead due to preconditions is really high. extreme prevention will reduce deaths but virus will be still deadly to us if we got it
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Great writing as usual. I would add one important aspect thats not coverd: The pontential of "getting less deadly" via virus mutation plus selection pressure to better adapt to human hosts. AFIK we havn't found such mutations yet. But still would be intersting to speculate ...
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What would that pressure be, though? The virus is able to spread well enough prior to symptom onset and most ultimately survive infection. I don't see much pressure to be less pathogenic.
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Maybe the patients are getting younger?
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Not sure whether d614g mutation/variant agrees with this .
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IFR now probably a bit lower because of improvements in therapy and earlier recognization/treatment of people at risk. Some still speculative but possible effect of facial masking and lowering of average inoculation dose on severity of disease as well.https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913 …
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Looking pragmatically also into another statistical data perspective?pic.twitter.com/pCYCvyrq75
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Great piece. Wouldn't the masks <> viral load factor also play a role?
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