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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      There also isn't really any trend here - a nonsignificant drop from 23% to 21% over two months, and then a sudden halving of the death rate in just one week, which corresponds to a sudden decrease in the average age

      4 replies 2 retweets 52 likes
      Show this thread
    2. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology 22 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Why are you ignoring the previous week w/ very low adjusted mortality (10%) & older patients (mean age 61), or 18% 3 wks earlier? A simple sample size weighted regression supports their claim of decreasing mortality (P=0.02). I don't think findings can be dismissed so quickly.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology 22 Oct 2020
      Replying to @DiseaseEcology @GidMK

      One can question their model for adjustment (details not provided in paper) but can't dismiss data out of hand when it's actually 3 low weeks suggesting lower mortality.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology 22 Oct 2020
      Replying to @DiseaseEcology @GidMK

      (FYI: an unweighted regression is even more significant; P =0.007). Not the way I'd actually analyze the data, but with what's provided that's what evidence suggests.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Oct 2020
      Replying to @DiseaseEcology

      Not trying to dismiss it out of hand, but I think the broader point that I made holds true - the death rate dropped precipitously from ~20% to ~10% in one week, coinciding with a massive drop in the number of patients and changes in their characteristics

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @DiseaseEcology

      The most likely explanation, to me, would seem to be that the demographic changes were the major driver of this difference, both factors that could be adjusted for and those that can't/are unknown

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology 22 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      The adjusted mortality adjusts for all the major factors shown to be important in mortality. Which ones did they miss that would make more than a tiny difference?pic.twitter.com/izNMDYZGHT

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Oct 2020
      Replying to @DiseaseEcology

      Duration of symptoms would be important. Some measure of severity of symptoms based on either clinician or patient report. To be fair, they might not have included more covariates because they were using a logistic model and they only had so many outcomes

      2 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
    9. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology 22 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      I'm not sure how you could use symptom severity as a predictor of death. Wouldn't that be circular? BTW, they included O2 saturation on admission & they included dozens of predictors in their model so I don't think # of predictors was issue.pic.twitter.com/PnlGWOx086

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Oct 2020
      Replying to @DiseaseEcology

      Right, but it's not best practice to use a logistic model when you have relatively few outcomes and so many predictors. And symptoms would be important because they impact admissions

      1 reply 1 retweet 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @DiseaseEcology

      Indeed, while they haven't given the confidence intervals for the logistic model, I'd expect that the last few weeks would be impressively wide

      2:58 PM - 22 Oct 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Bird Profile‏ @fagmyer 22 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @DiseaseEcology

          So the tl;dr answer is maybe it's less deadly, but it can't be known definitively with this data?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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