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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      That being said, I'm quite skeptical of the evidence presented. This story seems to claim that death rates have dropped ENORMOUSLY, while I would expect something more in the range of a relative 10-20% drop (say from 25% to 20%)pic.twitter.com/ursEABLS8V

      2 replies 4 retweets 45 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      The study that's linked to to verify the statement above is this one, and it's an interesting piece of research looking at some hospitals in NYC and the people they admitted for COVID-19 over time https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.11.20172775v1.full.pdf …

      1 reply 1 retweet 31 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      Looking at the results table, something immediately springs out. The denominator here - the number of patients being admitted by week - has changed DRAMATICALLY over timepic.twitter.com/5yPTtA3VeV

      2 replies 4 retweets 48 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      Perhaps more worryingly, that precipitous drop from 25% death rate to 7.6% cited in the news article appears to be based on...a single week of data. If you move back two weeks, there's no drop in death rates at all!pic.twitter.com/2JFezlEklb

      2 replies 14 retweets 97 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      There also isn't really any trend here - a nonsignificant drop from 23% to 21% over two months, and then a sudden halving of the death rate in just one week, which corresponds to a sudden decrease in the average age

      4 replies 2 retweets 52 likes
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    6. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology 22 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Why are you ignoring the previous week w/ very low adjusted mortality (10%) & older patients (mean age 61), or 18% 3 wks earlier? A simple sample size weighted regression supports their claim of decreasing mortality (P=0.02). I don't think findings can be dismissed so quickly.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology 22 Oct 2020
      Replying to @DiseaseEcology @GidMK

      One can question their model for adjustment (details not provided in paper) but can't dismiss data out of hand when it's actually 3 low weeks suggesting lower mortality.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology 22 Oct 2020
      Replying to @DiseaseEcology @GidMK

      (FYI: an unweighted regression is even more significant; P =0.007). Not the way I'd actually analyze the data, but with what's provided that's what evidence suggests.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Oct 2020
      Replying to @DiseaseEcology

      Not trying to dismiss it out of hand, but I think the broader point that I made holds true - the death rate dropped precipitously from ~20% to ~10% in one week, coinciding with a massive drop in the number of patients and changes in their characteristics

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. A Marm Kilpatrick‏ @DiseaseEcology 22 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Cases were gradually decreasing the whole time & death rate (which adjusted for characteristics - that's why adjusted death rate>unadjusted for later points) also decreased & was lower for last 3 of 4 weeks than 1st 4 weeks. The pattern is significant as regression or anova.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Oct 2020
      Replying to @DiseaseEcology

      This is true, although I'm not so concerned about the statistical significance tbh. If residual confounding is an issue, the p-value isn't as important to me as the question of causality

      1:34 PM - 22 Oct 2020
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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