This article raises some interesting points. Have death rates from COVID-19 gone done since March?https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/20/925441975/studies-point-to-big-drop-in-covid-19-death-rates …
Not trying to dismiss it out of hand, but I think the broader point that I made holds true - the death rate dropped precipitously from ~20% to ~10% in one week, coinciding with a massive drop in the number of patients and changes in their characteristics
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The most likely explanation, to me, would seem to be that the demographic changes were the major driver of this difference, both factors that could be adjusted for and those that can't/are unknown
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The adjusted mortality adjusts for all the major factors shown to be important in mortality. Which ones did they miss that would make more than a tiny difference?pic.twitter.com/izNMDYZGHT
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Cases were gradually decreasing the whole time & death rate (which adjusted for characteristics - that's why adjusted death rate>unadjusted for later points) also decreased & was lower for last 3 of 4 weeks than 1st 4 weeks. The pattern is significant as regression or anova.
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This is true, although I'm not so concerned about the statistical significance tbh. If residual confounding is an issue, the p-value isn't as important to me as the question of causality
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