Have lockdowns been bad for the economy? A new report from the International Monetary Fund has a very interesting answer to the question 1/npic.twitter.com/AKRip6RZpk
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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Have lockdowns been bad for the economy? A new report from the International Monetary Fund has a very interesting answer to the question 1/npic.twitter.com/AKRip6RZpk
2/n The report is here, and well worth reading. At the outset I should say that ALL OF THIS EVIDENCE IS UNCERTAIN The IMF is great, and has tried very hard to be accurate, but it is important to take care when reading these findingshttps://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020 …
3/n The basic summation is simple: - lockdowns probably cause economic harm - large outbreaks of COVID-19 also cause harm - it is hard to disentangle this complexity - there are almost certainly situations in which lockdowns are beneficial to the economypic.twitter.com/IaDilRtB8Y
4/n On the first point, it is quite clear that lockdowns are associated with greater economic decline. Countries with harsher lockdowns saw worse financial outcomespic.twitter.com/X4qrhJ79c6
Perhaps the report addresses this but "associated with" is clearly a case of "correlation is not necessarily causation" here. It is quite likely that countries with harsher lockdowns also had more severe outbreaks and therefore more ex-lockdown economic impact.
The report does attempt to disentangle this relationship, but absolutely it is hard to say things with any certainty in this area
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