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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Oct 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

      Worth noting that this represents 607,559 COVID-19 tests with 226 positives, giving a positive rate of 0.0372% Even if EVERY TEST was a false positive, that gives a specificity of ~99.96%https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1319084436630073344 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      For some context on this amazing effort, here is the % positive of tests run for COVID-19 in NSW since 1/09 Less than 0.2% the entire time! Spectacular work @NSWHealth https://twitter.com/GregDore2/status/1319080516264415232 … pic.twitter.com/tTIeYyJuQM
      12 replies 52 retweets 162 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Oct 2020

      But, because positive people are almost always retested here we can actually examine this question more robustly. Of the 226 positive results, one was later retested and found to be a false positive!pic.twitter.com/kw8GgKdu4Q

      1 reply 2 retweets 24 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Oct 2020

      To calculate test specificity, we take TN/(TN+FP) = 607333/(607333+1) = 99.99984% To put it another way, very roughly 1 false positive test per million tests done

      4 replies 10 retweets 62 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Oct 2020

      This very quickly and easily shows why the idea that most COVID-19 positive tests are false positives is simply misinformation and mathematically impossible

      1 reply 5 retweets 79 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Oct 2020

      If 1%, or even 0.1%, of all tests done were false positives, we would expect to have seen 1,000s of positive COVID-19 results in NSW in the last month rather than a few hundred

      9:02 PM - 21 Oct 2020
      • 7 Retweets
      • 57 Likes
      • Mar_tina Pfluft Stephen Berry Cindy **GET VACCINATED!!!** Lutz-Spidle Amy Ryan Griffin 🌅 Postcards from the burbs.... blaaaa Thomas Bashford
      3 replies 7 retweets 57 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Greg Dore‏ @GregDore2 21 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          The only context where “most COVID-19 positive tests are false positive” is when community transmission eliminated a la NSW for several wks May-Jun. Let’s hope we ca restore that myth, at least locally.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GregDore2

          Hahaha yes I believe you're right. During that period I remember 1 or 2 false positives, and since we had 0 true positives...

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Dublin Living - YouTube is not research or science‏ @DublinLiving 21 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Nice point. The other point is that if all these positives were really picking up old fragments then it sets an upper bound on cases, largely contradicting the "already at herd immunity" narrative in most areas.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Gorgi Kosev‏ @spion 22 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          The term false positives is a bit misleading, there is a lot to unpack there, some of it pure bullshit, other I haven't managed to refute yet... 1/x

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Gorgi Kosev‏ @spion 22 Oct 2020
          Replying to @spion @GidMK

          One particular scenario that sounds plausible is that as the symptomatic infections rise, they go and get tested; then contact tracing tests people without symptoms - and a lot of them still have viral remnants from when they were infected a few months back.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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