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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Oct 2020

    Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

    Worth noting that this represents 607,559 COVID-19 tests with 226 positives, giving a positive rate of 0.0372% Even if EVERY TEST was a false positive, that gives a specificity of ~99.96%https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1319084436630073344 …

    Health Nerd added,

    Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
    For some context on this amazing effort, here is the % positive of tests run for COVID-19 in NSW since 1/09 Less than 0.2% the entire time! Spectacular work @NSWHealth https://twitter.com/GregDore2/status/1319080516264415232 … pic.twitter.com/tTIeYyJuQM
    8:59 PM - 21 Oct 2020
    • 52 Retweets
    • 162 Likes
    • Francine #getvaccinated Briggs Mar_tina Emil Izgin RS Rachel oasislove Ulrike Momo Scientist Goes Pop
    12 replies 52 retweets 162 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Oct 2020

        But, because positive people are almost always retested here we can actually examine this question more robustly. Of the 226 positive results, one was later retested and found to be a false positive!pic.twitter.com/kw8GgKdu4Q

        1 reply 2 retweets 24 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Oct 2020

        To calculate test specificity, we take TN/(TN+FP) = 607333/(607333+1) = 99.99984% To put it another way, very roughly 1 false positive test per million tests done

        4 replies 10 retweets 62 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Oct 2020

        This very quickly and easily shows why the idea that most COVID-19 positive tests are false positives is simply misinformation and mathematically impossible

        1 reply 5 retweets 79 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Oct 2020

        If 1%, or even 0.1%, of all tests done were false positives, we would expect to have seen 1,000s of positive COVID-19 results in NSW in the last month rather than a few hundred

        3 replies 7 retweets 57 likes
        Show this thread
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. c0nc0rdance‏ @c0nc0rdance 21 Oct 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        I find this shocking in Texas, where our positivity rate has never, to my recollection, been below 5%, and usually hovers between 8 and 15%.

        4 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Oct 2020
        Replying to @c0nc0rdance

        I don't think we've been above 2% for any 7-day period ever in NSW 👀

        3 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. SH‏ @Scottch04 22 Oct 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Serious Q - How do we reconcile results like this with claimed specificity from the manufacturer? For example, below is a test I took in NYC with NPA of 95.6%. Is Australia using a different test?pic.twitter.com/i9ZfoiJHDa

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Stephan Ölschläger‏ @OelschlS 22 Oct 2020
        Replying to @Scottch04 @GidMK

        The standard you are comparing your test against determines the results as does the test itself. In this case, the two negative results that turned out positive with the xpert test might have been "false-negative" before.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. Cary Grant‏ @BothaBoy 22 Oct 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Amazing data. You are clearly best in class if true. You should get your data and methods peer-reviewed and published in The Lancet to put a stop to this "false-positive" guff, like this article ...https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30453-7/fulltext#figures …

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Dr. Swapneil Parikh 💉 💉 😷‏Verified account @swapneilparikh 22 Oct 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        False positives are very uncommon but a person can be reported positive without being infected due to contamination in the lab. This is a true positive for the test but an erroneous result for the patient. Contamination is more likely if there are many positive samples in the lab

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 22 Oct 2020
        Replying to @swapneilparikh

        That's a complete non-sequitur. It makes no difference. Even if it was true for every sample in NSW, it would still only be happening once every 100,000 tests or so

        1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
      4. Show replies

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