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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      That being said, I'm quite skeptical of the evidence presented. This story seems to claim that death rates have dropped ENORMOUSLY, while I would expect something more in the range of a relative 10-20% drop (say from 25% to 20%)pic.twitter.com/ursEABLS8V

      2 replies 4 retweets 45 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      The study that's linked to to verify the statement above is this one, and it's an interesting piece of research looking at some hospitals in NYC and the people they admitted for COVID-19 over time https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.11.20172775v1.full.pdf …

      1 reply 1 retweet 31 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      Looking at the results table, something immediately springs out. The denominator here - the number of patients being admitted by week - has changed DRAMATICALLY over timepic.twitter.com/5yPTtA3VeV

      2 replies 4 retweets 48 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      Perhaps more worryingly, that precipitous drop from 25% death rate to 7.6% cited in the news article appears to be based on...a single week of data. If you move back two weeks, there's no drop in death rates at all!pic.twitter.com/2JFezlEklb

      2 replies 14 retweets 97 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      There also isn't really any trend here - a nonsignificant drop from 23% to 21% over two months, and then a sudden halving of the death rate in just one week, which corresponds to a sudden decrease in the average age

      4 replies 2 retweets 52 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      Moving on, we have the second paper cited in the NPR article, which looks at a very large sample of people who were admitted to ICU in English hospitals for COVID-19https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.30.20165134v2 …

      1 reply 2 retweets 27 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      This study found that if you take the average death rate of these patients from the 'peak', it decreased in a linear fashion each week, and thus COVID-19 is getting less lethalpic.twitter.com/tkUdISvTfr

      1 reply 1 retweet 25 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      But why did they choose the 'peak' week? It wasn't the first week of data collection, and it's a bit arbitrary to only start counting from the worst week in the whole dataset

      1 reply 1 retweet 36 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      Indeed, if we extend the analysis back even just 3 weeks, the relationship disappears almost entirely and suddenly there's been very little difference since March!pic.twitter.com/8tGKmYXi7g

      2 replies 5 retweets 66 likes
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    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      I would go so far as to say that this study implies that any differences in ICU mortality in England due to COVID-19 are ~almost certainly~ down to admission criteria (which were strained during the peak in early April)

      6 replies 7 retweets 74 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      So, back to the question at the beginning of the thread: are your chances of dying from COVID-19 lower today than they were in March? Honestly, while we'd hope so, I'm not sure we can conclude much either way

      9:48 PM - 20 Oct 2020
      • 11 Retweets
      • 103 Likes
      • Dan Dennis Matteo Villa Gærvern Vince Gagan Tano Stephanie M. Lee Jorrit Posthuma de Boer blah drGarthK
      12 replies 11 retweets 103 likes
        1. Dr Paul Mackey‏ @auscandoc 20 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Great review thanks. Has perplexed me as the _appearance_ is that the chance of death is decreasing but was worried that appearances were deceiving.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        2. Dr Rob Whitehurst‏ @OYCar 20 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Well we're all 7 months older and looking at the IFR by age formula you tweeted that means we're now 7.5% more likely to die from the disease; so you need that much improvement in treatment to cancel the age factor out already.pic.twitter.com/KnEqO8kSdS

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Joseph‏ @JosephOnions 21 Oct 2020
          Replying to @OYCar @GidMK

          Couldn’t you also correct for this by old people dying or people having babies, which would bring down the average&median age of the population? Wild to conflate passage of time with aging population.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. James‏ @Basilsalty 21 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Surely the chance must be decreasing, the initial wave will have taken many who were particularly vulnerable to the disease,we should have learned how to treat in hospitals more effectively and if it’s not decreasing then what’s the point of all the measures?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. vrsimility‏ @vrsimility 21 Oct 2020
          Replying to @Basilsalty @GidMK

          Many of those will have died in care homes, not hospitals.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Hans Zauner‏ @HansZauner 21 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          As a hypothesis, is it possible that there may also be "seasonality of severity" (in addition to potential seasonality of infection rate); i.e. maybe higher risk of cases becoming severe/fatal during the cold season?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Dr Noor Bari‏ @NjbBari3 21 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Mortality from covid and non covid causes appear to be, predictably, linked with healthcare service efficiency. Overload seems to cause worse outcomes...

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Nature Guides BC‏ @natureguidesbc 21 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          @NPR it looks like your headline was misleading. Please don’t do this for #Covid_19 information!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Edward Schenck MD‏ @edschenck 21 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Also hospitals moved from using the sars-cov2 pcr test as a diagnostic tool to a screening tool. Patients with other diseases (which have different morbidity and mortality) will sometimes have a +test.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. daveminyo‏ @daveminyo 21 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          daveminyo Retweeted Neil Stone

          https://twitter.com/DrNeilStone/status/1313901758435995653?s=19 …

          daveminyo added,

          Neil StoneVerified account @DrNeilStone
          Feels better this time, at least as a doctor treating #Covid_19 patients. Being able to confidently give patients some evidence based treatments. And they seem to be largely doing well on Rem-Dex. Progress.
          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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