Now, I think it's reasonable to assume that the proportion of people who die after being infected by COVID-19 will fall over time. It's probably true that being infected today is less deadly than earlier this year
-
-
So, back to the question at the beginning of the thread: are your chances of dying from COVID-19 lower today than they were in March? Honestly, while we'd hope so, I'm not sure we can conclude much either way
Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Yes! If the large change in mortality reported by the media was due to changes in treatment, then there would be RCTs showing these changes in mortality. But there aint. Dexamethasone / anticoagulants possibly some effect. So the rest is an issue of sampling!
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Fascinating. But isn’t ICU death rate itself a bad stat to consider for how deadly the disease is? In other words, if treatments are much improved, wouldn’t we expect both the death rate and the % of cases that end up in ICU to decrease?
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
The same effect in Sweden. This is 30 day mortality per month There was a decline in the average age of people admitted from March to April. Since then the average age has stayed about the same. And mortality toopic.twitter.com/XNGn3d1uz7
-
I should ad that the mortality around 15-25% is the "normal" mortality for influenca in Swedish ICU. Here are the previous 2 seasons So the doctors seem to do about the same "estimation on survival triage" today with covid-19 patientspic.twitter.com/9KODU1on49
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
So the mortality at peak to some degree reflects the damage of overloaded health care systems being unable to provide care for all who needs it? And therefore this informs us about what would happen if the health care systems once again became overwhelmed?
-
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/declining-covid-19-case-fatality-rates-across-all-ages-analysis-of-german-data/ … Maybe Germany is a better candidate for estimating the effects of treatments? Their health care system wasn't overwhelmed.
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
Begging your pardon but there is evidence to contradict your supposition from the ICNARC dataset. No changes in demographics over time that would imply change in admission criteria. Markers of how sick patients are (APACHE score, PF ratio) not greatly different
-
I published these tweets before the ICNARC data came out
I do think that analysis suffers from similar weaknesses tho, it's really hard to disentangle the differences in the patient population from the death rate
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.