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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      This article raises some interesting points. Have death rates from COVID-19 gone done since March?https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/20/925441975/studies-point-to-big-drop-in-covid-19-death-rates …

      22 replies 86 retweets 221 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      Now, I think it's reasonable to assume that the proportion of people who die after being infected by COVID-19 will fall over time. It's probably true that being infected today is less deadly than earlier this year

      1 reply 6 retweets 47 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      That being said, I'm quite skeptical of the evidence presented. This story seems to claim that death rates have dropped ENORMOUSLY, while I would expect something more in the range of a relative 10-20% drop (say from 25% to 20%)pic.twitter.com/ursEABLS8V

      2 replies 4 retweets 45 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      The study that's linked to to verify the statement above is this one, and it's an interesting piece of research looking at some hospitals in NYC and the people they admitted for COVID-19 over time https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.11.20172775v1.full.pdf …

      1 reply 1 retweet 31 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      Looking at the results table, something immediately springs out. The denominator here - the number of patients being admitted by week - has changed DRAMATICALLY over timepic.twitter.com/5yPTtA3VeV

      2 replies 4 retweets 48 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      Perhaps more worryingly, that precipitous drop from 25% death rate to 7.6% cited in the news article appears to be based on...a single week of data. If you move back two weeks, there's no drop in death rates at all!pic.twitter.com/2JFezlEklb

      2 replies 14 retweets 97 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      There also isn't really any trend here - a nonsignificant drop from 23% to 21% over two months, and then a sudden halving of the death rate in just one week, which corresponds to a sudden decrease in the average age

      4 replies 2 retweets 52 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

      Moving on, we have the second paper cited in the NPR article, which looks at a very large sample of people who were admitted to ICU in English hospitals for COVID-19https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.30.20165134v2 …

      9:48 PM - 20 Oct 2020
      • 2 Retweets
      • 27 Likes
      • Gagan Tano Jorrit Posthuma de Boer blah David Baker Cheryl Browne SKI-UR-ASS Gwen Brandt MD transplantrockstar Kent Andersson
      1 reply 2 retweets 27 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

          This study found that if you take the average death rate of these patients from the 'peak', it decreased in a linear fashion each week, and thus COVID-19 is getting less lethalpic.twitter.com/tkUdISvTfr

          1 reply 1 retweet 25 likes
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        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

          But why did they choose the 'peak' week? It wasn't the first week of data collection, and it's a bit arbitrary to only start counting from the worst week in the whole dataset

          1 reply 1 retweet 36 likes
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        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

          Indeed, if we extend the analysis back even just 3 weeks, the relationship disappears almost entirely and suddenly there's been very little difference since March!pic.twitter.com/8tGKmYXi7g

          2 replies 5 retweets 66 likes
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        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

          I would go so far as to say that this study implies that any differences in ICU mortality in England due to COVID-19 are ~almost certainly~ down to admission criteria (which were strained during the peak in early April)

          6 replies 7 retweets 74 likes
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        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020

          So, back to the question at the beginning of the thread: are your chances of dying from COVID-19 lower today than they were in March? Honestly, while we'd hope so, I'm not sure we can conclude much either way

          12 replies 11 retweets 103 likes
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        7. End of conversation

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