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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Christopher Snowdon‏Verified account @cjsnowdon 19 Oct 2020

      New meta-analysis of 18 studies finds that smokers are *82% less likely* to be hospitalised with COVID-19 than nonsmokers.https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/20/7394/htm …

      50 replies 102 retweets 180 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020
      Replying to @cjsnowdon

      I mean, that's a fairly obvious case of survivorship bias and also a remarkably terrible study

      5 replies 1 retweet 29 likes
    3. Christopher Snowdon‏Verified account @cjsnowdon 20 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      I haven’t looked up their references, but I would hope the studies adjust for age like the ones I list here - https://velvetgloveironfist.blogspot.com/2020/06/smoking-and-covid-19-update-plus.html …

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020
      Replying to @cjsnowdon

      Nope, they explicitly say that they could not adjust for age and instead used mean values due to the heterogeneity of study designpic.twitter.com/zjzmp4IJ6J

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Christopher Snowdon‏Verified account @cjsnowdon 20 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Ha! That is a bit basic.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020
      Replying to @cjsnowdon

      Their design doesn't really allow for the examination of their question regardless. What you'd need to do to see if smoking was protective is follow people through time, not just aggregate cross-sectional data in this way

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Christopher Snowdon‏Verified account @cjsnowdon 20 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      I don’t know about that. We’ve drawn conclusions about obesity and Covid from similar evidence.

      4 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020
      Replying to @cjsnowdon

      Sorry, yes, I didn't put that correctly. What you'd need to do is look at the whole at-risk population, whereas this study simply compares smoking rates in one group with a survey done 10 years ago. Can't really garner much from that!

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Jukka Kelovuori‏ @jkelovuori 20 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @cjsnowdon

      Just out of interest, what is your opinion on this study @GidMK?https://www.qeios.com/read/UJR2AW.9 

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Oct 2020
      Replying to @jkelovuori @cjsnowdon

      I think that actually makes it more likely that survivorship bias is the main issue at play here i.e. current smokers who are very sick die before getting COVID-19, so the ones who are still alive are less at risk than they would be

      2:45 PM - 20 Oct 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Charles A. Gardner, PhD Jukka Kelovuori
      6 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. Laura Henderson‏ @SixandLaura 20 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @jkelovuori @cjsnowdon

          Can you comment on a possible link between vaping & coronavirus?

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Jukka Kelovuori‏ @jkelovuori 20 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @cjsnowdon

          Ok, thanks!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Charles A. Gardner, PhD‏ @ChaunceyGardner 20 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @jkelovuori @cjsnowdon

          I'm a neurobiologist, so out of my depth re your argument. But ~30% of LIVING smokers have comorbidities that are serious risk factors for #COVID19. The other 70% don't (yet). Important to distinguish risk of (a) infection, (b) hospitalization, and (c) sever complications.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. Dick Puddlecote‏ @Dick_Puddlecote 20 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @jkelovuori @cjsnowdon

          Is that what you think huh? I'm old enough to remember when 'experts' had that thing called evidence. Desperate stuff.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Dr. Johnny Twovapes, VBOSB‏ @mihotep 20 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @jkelovuori @cjsnowdon

          Wrong. That's not what survivor bias is and even the true definition of the phenomenon would not be applicable here.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Anssi Lagerstedt‏ @AnssiLagerstedt 21 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @jkelovuori @cjsnowdon

          Antismoking bias is the real problem here. I don´t think it is reasonable to generalize the case of influenza virus -smoking is thought to suppress immune reaction, leading to worse outcome. whereas in case of coronavirus the serious damage secondary to excessive immune reaction

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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