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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Oct 2020

      Controversial opinion: those that say its not possible to shield the vulnerable, also won't be able to prove if there is a difference (or lack of it) between the trajectory of the virus at Madrid and Stockholm. Who do you think has let it rip?

      15 replies 86 retweets 129 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Oct 2020
      Replying to @federicolois

      So, I've read through very carefully and tried out the lovely web app, and I think that the model is fairly obviously incorrect (current Belgium and Sweden numbers show this) and it's probably because of flawed assumptions

      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @federicolois

      In particular, the model is incredibly sensitive to the infectious period - in the paper you've got 2 days which seems extremely low. Best evidence suggests 6-9 days, if you input that the model becomes fairly incoherentpic.twitter.com/6GMQNFL2hw

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @federicolois

      Similarly, the proportion asymptomatic is probably around a 3x overestimate based on best evidencehttps://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003346 …

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @federicolois

      The other issue is that you can't easily compare across seroepidemiological samples in terms of the ratio in age groups as you have done, because some of them used probabilistic sampling and some did not (i.e. the ratio differences could be explained by sampling)

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 19 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Sorry, wont be able to look at this today. Travelling by car (no airplanes) 900km to help father-in-law (92) and uncle-in-law (78) diff. households because of severe clinical depression (they dont eat anymore). Who would have thought effect of depriving vulnerable from family?

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    7. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 19 Oct 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @GidMK

      Federico Andres Lois Retweeted Federico Andres Lois

      From the screenshot though is pretty obvious you are using it wrong. For a fitted model, the first step is always fitting. Which reminds me of https://twitter.com/federicolois/status/1317291809639440384?s=19 … . For first, then compare.

      Federico Andres Lois added,

      Federico Andres Lois @federicolois
      21/ While it makes sense (empirically) if I decide to use those values anyone could come and say: "You know you can choose whatever value and make it work" Which is technically true, and why I would argue we are doing everything wrong. But that is for another thread.
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 19 Oct 2020
      Replying to @federicolois

      I'll give it another go

      4:08 AM - 19 Oct 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • Kevin McKernan 🙂 Levan Djaparidze Mikko Heikkilä 😊
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 19 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Thanks looking forward to have a fruitful discussion.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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