So here's the think about that: The 8% came true. It's why some people bet on the green 00 on Roulette. Small likelihood, big payoff. It doesn't mean the HRC percentage was, per se, wrong.
Well right now 538 gives Trump a 12% chance and Biden an 87% chance but since the CIs overlap the reality is that the model is not predicting anything significantly
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Doesn't this depend on how we use the word "significant"? It might not be statistically significant, but if I have a business that will be significantly (as in substantially) impacted by a Biden or Trump win, these predictions are useful, no?
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