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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    2. Resolve.Action.Love‏ @Snowman55403 18 Oct 2020
      Replying to @lindsaycrouse @zeynep

      So here's the think about that: The 8% came true. It's why some people bet on the green 00 on Roulette. Small likelihood, big payoff. It doesn't mean the HRC percentage was, per se, wrong.

      8 replies 1 retweet 45 likes
    3. zeynep tufekci‏Verified account @zeynep 18 Oct 2020
      Replying to @Snowman55403 @lindsaycrouse

      In which case all of these projections are pointless or misleading. Pick one.

      25 replies 2 retweets 61 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 19 Oct 2020
      Replying to @zeynep @Snowman55403 @lindsaycrouse

      I'm not sure I agree - I feel like the biggest issue is this whole point estimatology. In reality, the point estimate is a little meaningless and indeed if you look at, say, the 538 prediction the confidence bounds for Trump vs Biden intersect

      1:12 AM - 19 Oct 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. This Tweet is unavailable.
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 19 Oct 2020

          Well right now 538 gives Trump a 12% chance and Biden an 87% chance but since the CIs overlap the reality is that the model is not predicting anything significantly

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Proud European from Austria 🇪🇺 🇦🇹  🌏‏ @e2dot7182818284 19 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @zeynep and

          Which page/projection are you referring to? This👇?https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ …

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 19 Oct 2020
          Replying to @E2dot7182818284 @zeynep and

          Yep. Have a look at the electoral college timeline that shows the overlapping CIs

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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