So here's the think about that: The 8% came true. It's why some people bet on the green 00 on Roulette. Small likelihood, big payoff. It doesn't mean the HRC percentage was, per se, wrong.
I'm not sure I agree - I feel like the biggest issue is this whole point estimatology. In reality, the point estimate is a little meaningless and indeed if you look at, say, the 538 prediction the confidence bounds for Trump vs Biden intersect
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Well right now 538 gives Trump a 12% chance and Biden an 87% chance but since the CIs overlap the reality is that the model is not predicting anything significantly
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Which page/projection are you referring to? This
?https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ … -
Yep. Have a look at the electoral college timeline that shows the overlapping CIs
End of conversation
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