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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 16 Oct 2020

      Controversial opinion: those that say its not possible to shield the vulnerable, also won't be able to prove if there is a difference (or lack of it) between the trajectory of the virus at Madrid and Stockholm. Who do you think has let it rip?

      15 replies 86 retweets 129 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Oct 2020
      Replying to @federicolois

      So, I've read through very carefully and tried out the lovely web app, and I think that the model is fairly obviously incorrect (current Belgium and Sweden numbers show this) and it's probably because of flawed assumptions

      9:35 PM - 18 Oct 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 5 Likes
      • Atomsk's Sanakan Ibrahim Tanyalcin Don EauxSnap JGehrlein
      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
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        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @federicolois

          In particular, the model is incredibly sensitive to the infectious period - in the paper you've got 2 days which seems extremely low. Best evidence suggests 6-9 days, if you input that the model becomes fairly incoherentpic.twitter.com/6GMQNFL2hw

          2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @federicolois

          Similarly, the proportion asymptomatic is probably around a 3x overestimate based on best evidencehttps://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003346 …

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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