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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Nick‏ @ledooze 18 Oct 2020

      Nick Retweeted Federico Andres Lois

      @GidMK @ethanjweisshttps://twitter.com/federicolois/status/1317254995801198592 …

      Nick added,

      Federico Andres Lois @federicolois
      Controversial opinion: those that say its not possible to shield the vulnerable, also won't be able to prove if there is a difference (or lack of it) between the trajectory of the virus at Madrid and Stockholm. Who do you think has let it rip?
      Show this thread
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Oct 2020
      Replying to @ledooze @ethanjweiss

      It looks like just another model with the end result largely baked in by the assumptions. If you assume that testing only captures a small fraction of people, you'll inevitably predict that many more have been infectedpic.twitter.com/lQ7rL0rpXN

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @ledooze @ethanjweiss

      Given that the model predicts 73% immune in Brussels, which is now having a massive exponentially growing second wave, one wonders whether the authors will update the model to reflect that it is a bit contradicted by case numbers now

      5:54 PM - 18 Oct 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Ethan Weiss
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @ledooze @ethanjweiss

          Actually, I suspect in part the model is flawed because it relies on immunity ratios from serology studies, but the serology studies were not created equal - Belgium and Sweden used a non-probabilistic sample while Spain sampled probabilistically

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Nick‏ @ledooze 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @ethanjweiss

          Thank you. Seems like bias was introduced at the outset perhaps...

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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