It looks like just another model with the end result largely baked in by the assumptions. If you assume that testing only captures a small fraction of people, you'll inevitably predict that many more have been infectedpic.twitter.com/lQ7rL0rpXN
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Given that the model predicts 73% immune in Brussels, which is now having a massive exponentially growing second wave, one wonders whether the authors will update the model to reflect that it is a bit contradicted by case numbers now
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Actually, I suspect in part the model is flawed because it relies on immunity ratios from serology studies, but the serology studies were not created equal - Belgium and Sweden used a non-probabilistic sample while Spain sampled probabilistically
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That is incorrect. The immunity level estimation has low sensitivity to those parameters. Check Appendix II.
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