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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Oct 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Katie Mack

      I feel like the high numbers of daily infections confuse people, so I think it's worth noting that if the US maintained a constant rate of 65,000 infections per day it would take 14 years for every person to get infected with COVID-19https://twitter.com/AstroKatie/status/1317502962055393280 …

      Health Nerd added,

      A plot of "New reported cases by day in the United States" from the New York Times. The plot shows that we're well into the third peak with new reported daily cases over 60,000 and rising.
      Katie MackVerified account @AstroKatie
      Just ordered four more of my favorite comfy face masks because the US is just going to keep this up indefinitely, apparently pic.twitter.com/pl8f0xPvYv
      Show this thread
      25 replies 83 retweets 260 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Oct 2020

      Of course, the true number of infections is likely higher than this, but even so it's interesting to know how long these high numbers would have to be sustained

      3 replies 0 retweets 37 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Oct 2020

      Regardless, even if the true number of infections were 650,000 a day, and we were looking at a 50% rate of infections, it would still take just under a year with these numbers, assuming no reinfections 😕

      2:46 PM - 17 Oct 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 26 Likes
      • Ketofan1000 Andrew Miller Yvonne Kirk Luna Dennis Sweitzer (PhD) Consider Going Outside Eugene Patrick_Z Proud European from Austria🇪🇺🇦🇹 🌏
      5 replies 1 retweet 26 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Mark Bski  🇺🇸 🐶‏ @MarkBski 17 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          The survival rate is about 99.999%. At what point do we worry.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Marco Piani‏ @Marco_Piani 17 Oct 2020
          Replying to @MarkBski @GidMK

          Sure: at ~200k deaths in the US, that means just 20,000,000,000 people infected in the US. That’s a lot of illegal immigration from other planets into the US. Better build a space wall.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Kaan Oliver‏ @Kaan71334881 17 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          You should interact with your followers. You have a handful who interact with you. Quite low for your follower count. And if you keep like this will lose them too.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. FACT Exeter‏ @FACT_Exeter 17 Oct 2020
          Replying to @Kaan71334881 @GidMK

          No he won't.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Steve Ilardi‏ @dr_ilardi 17 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Youyang Gu’s superb forecasting model has 16% cumulative infection rate in US, growing by another 3% per month...getting us to 50% of the population in a year at this pace. We may well have moderate herd immunity before widespread vaccine dissemination.https://covid19-projections.com/ 

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. J.L. Kevin‏ @justlikekevin 17 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Isn't an issue that it isn't a flat rate? Doubling effect and whatnot.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. JOSH  🍌‏ @BAYCminter 18 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          My wife’s friend that lives in Chicago got was infected in March with multiple positives 6 weeks apart. It’s now Oct and he came down with symptoms again and tested positive. I think reinfections are going to more prevalent than we might believe right now.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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