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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Oct 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Katie Mack

      I feel like the high numbers of daily infections confuse people, so I think it's worth noting that if the US maintained a constant rate of 65,000 infections per day it would take 14 years for every person to get infected with COVID-19https://twitter.com/AstroKatie/status/1317502962055393280 …

      Health Nerd added,

      A plot of "New reported cases by day in the United States" from the New York Times. The plot shows that we're well into the third peak with new reported daily cases over 60,000 and rising.
      Katie MackVerified account @AstroKatie
      Just ordered four more of my favorite comfy face masks because the US is just going to keep this up indefinitely, apparently pic.twitter.com/pl8f0xPvYv
      Show this thread
      25 replies 83 retweets 260 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Oct 2020

      Of course, the true number of infections is likely higher than this, but even so it's interesting to know how long these high numbers would have to be sustained

      2:35 PM - 17 Oct 2020
      • 37 Likes
      • Ketofan1000 Andrew Miller Luna Dennis Sweitzer (PhD) Consider Going Outside Patrick_Z 𓆸𓆏𓆸 🏳️‍🌈 yuh (slime) Duncan Armstrong Samuel Iff
      3 replies 0 retweets 37 likes
        1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Oct 2020

          Regardless, even if the true number of infections were 650,000 a day, and we were looking at a 50% rate of infections, it would still take just under a year with these numbers, assuming no reinfections 😕

          5 replies 1 retweet 26 likes
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        1. Kaan Oliver‏ @Kaan71334881 17 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Also it would still take 3+ years even if it's sustained.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Dr Rob Whitehurst‏ @OYCar 17 Oct 2020
          Replying to @alchemytoday @GidMK

          For other coronaviruses mean daily infections would be estimated at 300k or more for each of the four viruses in the US alone.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. End of conversation
        1. LoupDesVosges  💉 💉‏ @LDVRegainSyb 17 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Could we infer a rough estimate of the detection rate from some serology data points in the US?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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