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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Oct 2020

    Health Nerd Retweeted Katie Mack

    I feel like the high numbers of daily infections confuse people, so I think it's worth noting that if the US maintained a constant rate of 65,000 infections per day it would take 14 years for every person to get infected with COVID-19https://twitter.com/AstroKatie/status/1317502962055393280 …

    Health Nerd added,

    A plot of "New reported cases by day in the United States" from the New York Times. The plot shows that we're well into the third peak with new reported daily cases over 60,000 and rising.
    Katie MackVerified account @AstroKatie
    Just ordered four more of my favorite comfy face masks because the US is just going to keep this up indefinitely, apparently pic.twitter.com/pl8f0xPvYv
    Show this thread
    2:28 PM - 17 Oct 2020
    • 83 Retweets
    • 260 Likes
    • Nigel Kinbrum Ketofan1000 Yvonne Kirk Brendo RN Luna Sheri Stroh freddie Max Nisen I'm Here Live I'm a Kat
    25 replies 83 retweets 260 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Oct 2020

        Of course, the true number of infections is likely higher than this, but even so it's interesting to know how long these high numbers would have to be sustained

        3 replies 0 retweets 37 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Oct 2020

        Regardless, even if the true number of infections were 650,000 a day, and we were looking at a 50% rate of infections, it would still take just under a year with these numbers, assuming no reinfections 😕

        5 replies 1 retweet 26 likes
        Show this thread
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Jim‏ @jimatdisney 17 Oct 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        65000 confirmed infections also leads to 650 deaths. A year at that is 240,000 deaths. Unacceptable to me.

        1 reply 2 retweets 11 likes
      3. Dave Shepherd‏ @DaveShe78159685 17 Oct 2020
        Replying to @jimatdisney @GidMK

        If humans did not fight disease there wouldn't be any humans. This is not a deal. With some alien who wants tribute. The virus adapts to us and kills and will never stop. Unless that brain of ours fights back

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Greg Michelin‏ @GregMichelin 17 Oct 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Assuming the immunity is permanent and one cannot be reinfected.

        1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
      3. Mark Hoofnagle‏ @MarkHoofnagle 17 Oct 2020
        Replying to @GregMichelin @GidMK

        Right? This is not a safe assumption, nor is the belief a vaccine will silver bullet this.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. SR‏ @sorenrags 17 Oct 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        ... and the infected survivors would maintain immunity for 6-18 months before becoming susceptible again. We can't get off this treadmill that way. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31482-3/fulltext …pic.twitter.com/0zPX5PuxlE

        0 replies 2 retweets 11 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Meat Popsicle, but vaccinated‏ @Infoseepage 17 Oct 2020
        Replying to @GidMK @MackayIM

        Except it isn't 65k infections per day, it is 65k CONFIRMED infections per day. I'm not sure what the recent serology surveys are saying, but earlier in the epidemic, it wasn't uncommon for the US to be missing ~10 infections for every one it confirmed.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. ɪᴀɴ ᴍ. ᴍᴀᴄᴋᴀʏ, ᴘʜᴅ  🦠 🤧 🧬 🥼 🦟 🧻 🧙‍♂️‏Verified account @MackayIM 17 Oct 2020
        Replying to @Infoseepage @GidMK

        next tweet

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Chris P Cactus‏ @thecrispycactus 17 Oct 2020
        Replying to @GidMK @KatieWalllace

        Factoring exponential growth?

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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