The #JohnSnowMemo assumes an IFR for COVID-19 that's "several-fold higher than that of seasonal influenza."
The evidence they cite for this very central claim, made in October?
This paper, published in March, using China data mostly from January. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext …
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Replying to @sudha_lakshmi
The Verity paper is from very early on in the pandemic granted, but states the IFR is around 0.66%. This paper in September details spectrum of IFR in age, sex, comorbidities. Europe IFR 0.8% https://gh.bmj.com/content/bmjgh/5/9/e003094.full.pdf … Here's another meta-analysis: 0.68%https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220321809 …
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Replying to @DrDomPimenta
Here's the latest, based on a meta-analysis of seroprevalence data: 0.23% adjusted median, 0.27% unadjusted. https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf … In general, I prefer approaches like these, with more epidemiological data and less fancy modeling.
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Replying to @sudha_lakshmi @DrDomPimenta
Marc Lipsitch Retweeted Health Nerd
This is not WHO's view but a view published in a journal they produce. It is deeply flawed as
@GidMK has shownhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1316511734115385344?s=20 …Marc Lipsitch added,
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Also, to the original point in the thread, even using the median IFR there gives you a value ~5-10× higher than the IFR of influenza
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Is the IFR of seasonal flu really as low as 0.025-0.05%? I was looking at RKI data from Germany, and at least to this layperson, it looks like Germany's flu IFR for 2017/2018 was an astounding 0.28% (9 million infected, 25k deaths), 10x higher than what you're suggesting.pic.twitter.com/H7m3ZfmUKR
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Replying to @sudha_lakshmi @GidMK and
You know neither covid IFR nor flu IFR. Step back and stop constantly dismissing the numbers found by people who spent hours researching those topics, with a number or two that you take without context somewhere.
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Replying to @edw_tweet @GidMK and
Surely you're directing this at people who claim it's scientific consensus that the "infection fatality rate of COVID-19 is several-fold higher than that of seasonal influenza." Oddly enough, I've probably carefully read more work on this than some of those signatories have.
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Given that you were not aware that the initial number you had posted was based on medically attended illness, that claim appears to be really quite unlikely
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Replying to @GidMK @edw_tweet
Says the epidemiology PhD student, specializing in diabetes, who claimed IN PRINT that Covid was 50-100x as lethal as the flu?
I work in finance (probably a lot more numerate than you), and specifically said that in my *layperson's* opinion that looked like IFR.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes - Show replies
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