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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Sudha Lakshmi‏ @sudha_lakshmi 14 Oct 2020

      The #JohnSnowMemo assumes an IFR for COVID-19 that's "several-fold higher than that of seasonal influenza." The evidence they cite for this very central claim, made in October? This paper, published in March, using China data mostly from January. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext … 1/5

      5 replies 41 retweets 122 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Dr Dominic Pimenta‏Verified account @DrDomPimenta 15 Oct 2020
      Replying to @sudha_lakshmi

      The Verity paper is from very early on in the pandemic granted, but states the IFR is around 0.66%. This paper in September details spectrum of IFR in age, sex, comorbidities. Europe IFR 0.8% https://gh.bmj.com/content/bmjgh/5/9/e003094.full.pdf … Here's another meta-analysis: 0.68%https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220321809 …

      3 replies 3 retweets 10 likes
    3. Sudha Lakshmi‏ @sudha_lakshmi 15 Oct 2020
      Replying to @DrDomPimenta

      Here's the latest, based on a meta-analysis of seroprevalence data: 0.23% adjusted median, 0.27% unadjusted. https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf … In general, I prefer approaches like these, with more epidemiological data and less fancy modeling.

      1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
    4. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 15 Oct 2020
      Replying to @sudha_lakshmi @DrDomPimenta

      Marc Lipsitch Retweeted Health Nerd

      This is not WHO's view but a view published in a journal they produce. It is deeply flawed as @GidMK has shownhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1316511734115385344?s=20 …

      Marc Lipsitch added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      John Ioannidis, of "Most Published Research Findings Are False" fame, has now had his paper on IFR published Let's do one, final, twitter peer-review on the study 1/n pic.twitter.com/D24ut4zGJj
      Show this thread
      3 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Oct 2020
      Replying to @mlipsitch @sudha_lakshmi @DrDomPimenta

      Also, to the original point in the thread, even using the median IFR there gives you a value ~5-10× higher than the IFR of influenza

      1 reply 0 retweets 16 likes
    6. Sudha Lakshmi‏ @sudha_lakshmi 15 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @mlipsitch @DrDomPimenta

      Is the IFR of seasonal flu really as low as 0.025-0.05%? I was looking at RKI data from Germany, and at least to this layperson, it looks like Germany's flu IFR for 2017/2018 was an astounding 0.28% (9 million infected, 25k deaths), 10x higher than what you're suggesting.pic.twitter.com/H7m3ZfmUKR

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Starving Engineer‏ @edw_tweet 15 Oct 2020
      Replying to @sudha_lakshmi @GidMK and

      You know neither covid IFR nor flu IFR. Step back and stop constantly dismissing the numbers found by people who spent hours researching those topics, with a number or two that you take without context somewhere.

      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Sudha Lakshmi‏ @sudha_lakshmi 15 Oct 2020
      Replying to @edw_tweet @GidMK and

      Surely you're directing this at people who claim it's scientific consensus that the "infection fatality rate of COVID-19 is several-fold higher than that of seasonal influenza." Oddly enough, I've probably carefully read more work on this than some of those signatories have. 🤣

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Oct 2020
      Replying to @sudha_lakshmi @edw_tweet

      Given that you were not aware that the initial number you had posted was based on medically attended illness, that claim appears to be really quite unlikely

      10:28 PM - 15 Oct 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Jonathan2106 Atomsk's Sanakan
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Sudha Lakshmi‏ @sudha_lakshmi 15 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @edw_tweet

          Says the epidemiology PhD student, specializing in diabetes, who claimed IN PRINT that Covid was 50-100x as lethal as the flu? 🤣 I work in finance (probably a lot more numerate than you), and specifically said that in my *layperson's* opinion that looked like IFR.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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