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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Sudha Lakshmi‏ @sudha_lakshmi 14 Oct 2020

      The #JohnSnowMemo assumes an IFR for COVID-19 that's "several-fold higher than that of seasonal influenza." The evidence they cite for this very central claim, made in October? This paper, published in March, using China data mostly from January. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext … 1/5

      5 replies 41 retweets 122 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Dr Dominic Pimenta‏Verified account @DrDomPimenta 15 Oct 2020
      Replying to @sudha_lakshmi

      The Verity paper is from very early on in the pandemic granted, but states the IFR is around 0.66%. This paper in September details spectrum of IFR in age, sex, comorbidities. Europe IFR 0.8% https://gh.bmj.com/content/bmjgh/5/9/e003094.full.pdf … Here's another meta-analysis: 0.68%https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220321809 …

      3 replies 3 retweets 10 likes
    3. Sudha Lakshmi‏ @sudha_lakshmi 15 Oct 2020
      Replying to @DrDomPimenta

      Here's the latest, based on a meta-analysis of seroprevalence data: 0.23% adjusted median, 0.27% unadjusted. https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf … In general, I prefer approaches like these, with more epidemiological data and less fancy modeling.

      1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
    4. Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 15 Oct 2020
      Replying to @sudha_lakshmi @DrDomPimenta

      Marc Lipsitch Retweeted Health Nerd

      This is not WHO's view but a view published in a journal they produce. It is deeply flawed as @GidMK has shownhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1316511734115385344?s=20 …

      Marc Lipsitch added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      John Ioannidis, of "Most Published Research Findings Are False" fame, has now had his paper on IFR published Let's do one, final, twitter peer-review on the study 1/n pic.twitter.com/D24ut4zGJj
      Show this thread
      3 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
    5. Fugel‏ @Fugel1010 15 Oct 2020
      Replying to @mlipsitch @sudha_lakshmi and

      But the W.H.O. Estimates 10% of global population has been infected. Given the # of total deaths doesn’t that result in an IFR of ~0.15%? That is a lot less than 0.66%.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Sudha Lakshmi‏ @sudha_lakshmi 15 Oct 2020
      Replying to @Fugel1010 @mlipsitch and

      My guess is that global IFR will probably trend lower than even 0.23%. Huge numbers of infections, in India, Brazil, many parts of Africa (just saw a study from South Africa, showing 40% seroprevalence in Cape Town) that I don't think are fully accounted for.

      4 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Oct 2020
      Replying to @sudha_lakshmi @Fugel1010 and

      If you take the global age breakdown and apply to our age-stratified IFR paper, you get a figure of about 0.7% for the global IFR. However, I think it's pretty unlikely that there will end up being equal infection across ages, so it'll probably be lowerhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6 …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Sudha Lakshmi‏ @sudha_lakshmi 15 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @Fugel1010 and

      Dude, aren't you the guy who said " it looks like COVID-19 has a fatality rate roughly 50–100 times higher than influenza"? How can anyone take you seriously after you publish a claim like that? 🤣 https://medium.com/@gidmk/covid-19-is-far-more-lethal-than-influenza-69b6628e69f2 …pic.twitter.com/s4bZ5IqgnG

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Oct 2020
      Replying to @sudha_lakshmi @Fugel1010 and

      Yep, that was indeed based on an apples-to-apples comparison of serology-informed estimates of influenza vs COVID-19 fatality rates. To be fair, that was of the 2009 pandemic influenza, which was less fatal than most seasons, but also used inferred deaths and so

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @sudha_lakshmi and

      Could also be an overestimate. The challenge that I see when most people compare COVID-19 and influenza death rates is that the comparisons are very clearly not apples to apples - if nothing else, influenza deaths are carefully inferred from pneumonia codes - so it's quite

      9:17 PM - 15 Oct 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Atomsk's Sanakan
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @sudha_lakshmi and

          Hard to make a reasonable comparison. The blog makes the point that we know quite well that COVID-19 is far more lethal than influenza, even if it is really quite challenging to put a specific point on that number

          3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Sudha Lakshmi‏ @sudha_lakshmi 15 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @Fugel1010 and

          "The blog makes the point that we know quite well that COVID-19 is far more lethal than influenza, even if it is really quite challenging to put a specific point on that number." I guess that's why you said it was 50-100x as lethal as influenza! Bravo!

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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