The #JohnSnowMemo assumes an IFR for COVID-19 that's "several-fold higher than that of seasonal influenza."
The evidence they cite for this very central claim, made in October?
This paper, published in March, using China data mostly from January. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext …
1/5
-
Show this thread
-
Replying to @sudha_lakshmi
The Verity paper is from very early on in the pandemic granted, but states the IFR is around 0.66%. This paper in September details spectrum of IFR in age, sex, comorbidities. Europe IFR 0.8% https://gh.bmj.com/content/bmjgh/5/9/e003094.full.pdf … Here's another meta-analysis: 0.68%https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220321809 …
3 replies 3 retweets 10 likes -
Replying to @DrDomPimenta
Here's the latest, based on a meta-analysis of seroprevalence data: 0.23% adjusted median, 0.27% unadjusted. https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf … In general, I prefer approaches like these, with more epidemiological data and less fancy modeling.
1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes -
Replying to @sudha_lakshmi @DrDomPimenta
Marc Lipsitch Retweeted Health Nerd
This is not WHO's view but a view published in a journal they produce. It is deeply flawed as
@GidMK has shownhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1316511734115385344?s=20 …Marc Lipsitch added,
3 replies 1 retweet 11 likes -
Replying to @mlipsitch @sudha_lakshmi and
But the W.H.O. Estimates 10% of global population has been infected. Given the # of total deaths doesn’t that result in an IFR of ~0.15%? That is a lot less than 0.66%.
2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @Fugel1010 @mlipsitch and
My guess is that global IFR will probably trend lower than even 0.23%. Huge numbers of infections, in India, Brazil, many parts of Africa (just saw a study from South Africa, showing 40% seroprevalence in Cape Town) that I don't think are fully accounted for.
4 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @sudha_lakshmi @Fugel1010 and
If you take the global age breakdown and apply to our age-stratified IFR paper, you get a figure of about 0.7% for the global IFR. However, I think it's pretty unlikely that there will end up being equal infection across ages, so it'll probably be lowerhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6 …
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @GidMK @Fugel1010 and
Dude, aren't you the guy who said " it looks like COVID-19 has a fatality rate roughly 50–100 times higher than influenza"? How can anyone take you seriously after you publish a claim like that?
https://medium.com/@gidmk/covid-19-is-far-more-lethal-than-influenza-69b6628e69f2 …pic.twitter.com/s4bZ5IqgnG
2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @sudha_lakshmi @Fugel1010 and
Yep, that was indeed based on an apples-to-apples comparison of serology-informed estimates of influenza vs COVID-19 fatality rates. To be fair, that was of the 2009 pandemic influenza, which was less fatal than most seasons, but also used inferred deaths and so
2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
Could also be an overestimate. The challenge that I see when most people compare COVID-19 and influenza death rates is that the comparisons are very clearly not apples to apples - if nothing else, influenza deaths are carefully inferred from pneumonia codes - so it's quite
-
-
Replying to @GidMK @sudha_lakshmi and
Hard to make a reasonable comparison. The blog makes the point that we know quite well that COVID-19 is far more lethal than influenza, even if it is really quite challenging to put a specific point on that number
3 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @GidMK @Fugel1010 and
"The blog makes the point that we know quite well that COVID-19 is far more lethal than influenza, even if it is really quite challenging to put a specific point on that number." I guess that's why you said it was 50-100x as lethal as influenza! Bravo!
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes - Show replies
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.