The #JohnSnowMemo assumes an IFR for COVID-19 that's "several-fold higher than that of seasonal influenza."
The evidence they cite for this very central claim, made in October?
This paper, published in March, using China data mostly from January. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext …
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Could also be an overestimate. The challenge that I see when most people compare COVID-19 and influenza death rates is that the comparisons are very clearly not apples to apples - if nothing else, influenza deaths are carefully inferred from pneumonia codes - so it's quite
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Hard to make a reasonable comparison. The blog makes the point that we know quite well that COVID-19 is far more lethal than influenza, even if it is really quite challenging to put a specific point on that number
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