The #JohnSnowMemo assumes an IFR for COVID-19 that's "several-fold higher than that of seasonal influenza."
The evidence they cite for this very central claim, made in October?
This paper, published in March, using China data mostly from January. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext …
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If you take the global age breakdown and apply to our age-stratified IFR paper, you get a figure of about 0.7% for the global IFR. However, I think it's pretty unlikely that there will end up being equal infection across ages, so it'll probably be lowerhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6 …
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Dude, aren't you the guy who said " it looks like COVID-19 has a fatality rate roughly 50–100 times higher than influenza"? How can anyone take you seriously after you publish a claim like that?
https://medium.com/@gidmk/covid-19-is-far-more-lethal-than-influenza-69b6628e69f2 …pic.twitter.com/s4bZ5IqgnG
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Yep, that was indeed based on an apples-to-apples comparison of serology-informed estimates of influenza vs COVID-19 fatality rates. To be fair, that was of the 2009 pandemic influenza, which was less fatal than most seasons, but also used inferred deaths and so
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