The #JohnSnowMemo assumes an IFR for COVID-19 that's "several-fold higher than that of seasonal influenza."
The evidence they cite for this very central claim, made in October?
This paper, published in March, using China data mostly from January. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext …
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Is the IFR of seasonal flu really as low as 0.025-0.05%? I was looking at RKI data from Germany, and at least to this layperson, it looks like Germany's flu IFR for 2017/2018 was an astounding 0.28% (9 million infected, 25k deaths), 10x higher than what you're suggesting.pic.twitter.com/H7m3ZfmUKR
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That is not an infection denominator but a medically attended illness denominator
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