27/n There are also still, after many revisions, studies that have been excluded inappropriately from the estimates This study from Italy, for example, which produces an estimate of 7% (!) for IFR in the regionpic.twitter.com/41OGhRzSoN
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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27/n There are also still, after many revisions, studies that have been excluded inappropriately from the estimates This study from Italy, for example, which produces an estimate of 7% (!) for IFR in the regionpic.twitter.com/41OGhRzSoN
29/n Similarly, there are numerous country-wide efforts not looked at in any way, such as the large population studies conducted in Italy (150,000 participants) and Portugal (2,300 participants)pic.twitter.com/Ur07B0QRpM
30/n And while there is a very brief discussion of the variation in IFR by region, the main component (age) - as we have demonstrated - was barely addressed, with the author instead focusing on vague speculation about healthcare systemshttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6 …
31/n We can actually see how age of those infected impacts IFR quite neatly from some of the studies in this review Qatar (0.01%) and Spain (1.15%) look very different, right?pic.twitter.com/kwAOJ4QzCX
Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd
32/n Wrong! In fact, the difference here is entirely explained by age! In Qatar, infections have mostly been limited to the immigrant worker population (<40 years), with this group representing more than 50% of infectionshttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1300938689535565824?s=20 …
Health Nerd added,
33/n Since this group is at a very low risk of death from COVID-19, the population IFR is MUCH lower than in Spain, where infections among the elderly have been much more common
34/n All of these errors are a shame, because to a certain extent I agree with the author IFR is NOT a fixed category. In the metaregression linked above in the thread, we demonstrated that ~90% of variation in IFR between regions was probably due to the age of those infected!pic.twitter.com/fj0k5oyW2B
To be clear, there's really only 1 real error you pointed out; 44 vs 47% The rest are reference gaps which were disclaimed in the header The other items are less "errors" and more subjective disagreements you have w/ Ioannidis on his inclusion criteria
Moreover your IFR meta was significantly higher due to 2 errors: 1) Your elongated death window (capturing fatalities from infections beyond the sample dates) 2) Not fully accounting for the AB decay curve *ELISA only captures a point in time Later studies underestimate seroppic.twitter.com/DypPoYJnA8
Actually, in my newer review we look more carefully at the death lag and conclude that in fact it should be longer in most situations. We also look at the AB delay curve issue more thoroughlyhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6 …
It is not true to say that later studies underestimate seroprevalence, if only because there aren't really any 'later' studies thus far. Even though there's a lag for publication, virtually all seroprevalence studies were conducted between March and July
But wasn’t his article submitted in May and thus other studies after would not be included? Your thread also seems to confirm my viewpoint that LTC need more restrictions and retirees go out less. How do school closures make any sense with huge age difference in IFR?
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