26/n We have a new paper that we're working on that suggests that using such estimates will usually overstate the true seroprevalence by a factor of about 2x Which means the true IFR would be double the number computed from such studies
Actually, in my newer review we look more carefully at the death lag and conclude that in fact it should be longer in most situations. We also look at the AB delay curve issue more thoroughlyhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6 …
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It is not true to say that later studies underestimate seroprevalence, if only because there aren't really any 'later' studies thus far. Even though there's a lag for publication, virtually all seroprevalence studies were conducted between March and July
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But wasn’t his article submitted in May and thus other studies after would not be included? Your thread also seems to confirm my viewpoint that LTC need more restrictions and retirees go out less. How do school closures make any sense with huge age difference in IFR?
End of conversation
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How long is the death lag?
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