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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      30/n And while there is a very brief discussion of the variation in IFR by region, the main component (age) - as we have demonstrated - was barely addressed, with the author instead focusing on vague speculation about healthcare systemshttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6 …

      1 reply 1 retweet 59 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      31/n We can actually see how age of those infected impacts IFR quite neatly from some of the studies in this review Qatar (0.01%) and Spain (1.15%) look very different, right?pic.twitter.com/kwAOJ4QzCX

      2 replies 2 retweets 63 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

      32/n Wrong! In fact, the difference here is entirely explained by age! In Qatar, infections have mostly been limited to the immigrant worker population (<40 years), with this group representing more than 50% of infectionshttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1300938689535565824?s=20 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      Replying to @Brian_Orak @greg_travis and 2 others
      Yes indeed, and actually this is quite well explained by our recent meta-analysis of IFR by age: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4 … If you use the predicted IFRs here, Qatar is actually a touch higher than expected given that >50% of their infections are <40yo
      2 replies 3 retweets 82 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      33/n Since this group is at a very low risk of death from COVID-19, the population IFR is MUCH lower than in Spain, where infections among the elderly have been much more common

      1 reply 2 retweets 42 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      34/n All of these errors are a shame, because to a certain extent I agree with the author IFR is NOT a fixed category. In the metaregression linked above in the thread, we demonstrated that ~90% of variation in IFR between regions was probably due to the age of those infected!pic.twitter.com/fj0k5oyW2B

      2 replies 10 retweets 69 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      35/n Unfortunately, Prof Ioannidis appears not to have read this study, but if you are interested here is the preprint version to perusehttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6 …

      1 reply 3 retweets 57 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      36/n Anyway, there are numerous errors remaining in the text that I haven't pointed out, but if you've reached this far in the thread I'm sure you're tired of me telling them to you straight up. Have a really careful look and see if you can find them!

      1 reply 0 retweets 40 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      37/n (As a start, there is now a representative population estimate from Wuhan out that implies an IFR SUBSTANTIALLY lower than the ones inferred in this paper from samples including hospitalized patients)

      2 replies 0 retweets 36 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      38/n Regardless, the main take-home remains, unfortunately, that this paper is overtly wrong in a number of ways, it does not adhere to even the most basic guidelines for this type of research, and thus the point estimate is probably wrong

      5 replies 6 retweets 74 likes
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    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      39/n Sorry, typo in tweet 37 - should read an IFR SUBSTANTIALLY *higher*, not lower. The SEROPREVALENCE is lower (at ~2%) which implies an IFR of ~1.2%

      3 replies 1 retweet 49 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      40/n Oh, on an unrelated sidenote, it's quite funny that the author spends some time arguing that using a median is more appropriate than doing a R-E meta-analysis (as @LeaMerone and I did), so I quickly calculated the median for our study and it is higher at 0.79% for IFR 😂pic.twitter.com/QTkJKNzMnb

      6:03 PM - 14 Oct 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 70 Likes
      • Greener Pastures Whitney R. Robinson eec Alexandre Payot #TeamRosenkohl #NeinZuHomöopathie Anjo Joschka Meier Fabio Hasler Dr Lea Merone MBChB (hons) MPH&TM MSc FAFPHM Ⓥ
      12 replies 1 retweet 70 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. MyuranRaj‏ @MyuranRaj 14 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @LeaMerone

          Very nice thread. Thanks. Have you seen any IFR studies that compensate for the seroreversion phenomenon?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020
          Replying to @MyuranRaj @LeaMerone

          We actually control for that in our age-stratified IFR paper - we compared our seroprevalence estimates with PCR-based IFRs from countries with sufficiently good track and trace systems and found that they are very consistenthttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6 …

          0 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Polysub‏ @lovelyropes 14 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @LeaMerone

          Thank you very much for this interesting Thread 👍

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. Yosi Shamay‏ @LabYosi 15 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @LeaMerone

          According to this pre-print, serum antibodies only reflect mild to severe disease and that it is possible to detect serum negative-asymptomatic people which were exposed to COVID with nasal mucosal IgA antibodies.https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.108308v1 …

          0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
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        2. Amy Riegelman (pronounced Riggleman)‏ @amylibrarian 15 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @LeaMerone

          Amy Riegelman (pronounced Riggleman) Retweeted Amy Riegelman (pronounced Riggleman)

          Also, I'm not a fan of solo-authored systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Another person should be blindly screening studies. I'm interested in your thoughts on this, @GidMK.https://twitter.com/amylibrarian/status/1262807221689344001?s=20 …

          Amy Riegelman (pronounced Riggleman) added,

          Amy Riegelman (pronounced Riggleman) @amylibrarian
          I do not trust solo-authored meta-analyses. https://twitter.com/stephaniemlee/status/1262805392624517120 …
          1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
        3. Amy Riegelman (pronounced Riggleman)‏ @amylibrarian 15 Oct 2020
          Replying to @amylibrarian @GidMK @LeaMerone

          Source: Chapter 4 of the Cochrane Handbookpic.twitter.com/JlBERAi7np

          1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Carl J‏ @Plus_haut 15 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @LeaMerone

          CDC currently showing fatalities at just over 2.74%. Does this mean the Yanks are missing 90% of people with infection? (I think not)pic.twitter.com/UIAP7EuAlT

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Raphaël Lévy‏ @raphavisses 15 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @LeaMerone

          @PubPeerBot

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. PubPeerBot‏ @PubPeerBot 15 Oct 2020
          Replying to @raphavisses @GidMK @LeaMerone

          Nice try, but the article doesn't have a DOI (yet)...

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. KiaKielo‏ @KiaKielo 19 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @LeaMerone

          @threadreaderapp unroll please

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Thread Reader Unroll Helper‏ @UnrollHelper 19 Oct 2020
          Replying to @KiaKielo

          Guten tag, here is your unroll: @GidMK: John Ioannidis, of "Most Published Research Findings Are False" fame, has now had his paper on IFR published… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1316511734115385344.html … Talk to you soon. 🤖

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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