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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      23/n For example, in England an ongoing study on blood donors by PHE estimates that 8.5% of the population has developed antibodies to COVID-19 However, the ONS with their massive randomized study puts the figure at 6% insteadpic.twitter.com/ocnYbQoazk

      1 reply 3 retweets 70 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      24/n In Denmark, a robust population estimate put the figure at 1.1%, while their blood donor study estimates 1.9% have been infected previouslypic.twitter.com/BT1eqgjtuT

      4 replies 3 retweets 64 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      25/n Indeed, in every location where both a non-probabilistic, convenience sample has been taken (not just blood donors) AS WELL AS a well-done population estimate, the convenience sample overestimates the seroprevalence

      3 replies 4 retweets 91 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      26/n We have a new paper that we're working on that suggests that using such estimates will usually overstate the true seroprevalence by a factor of about 2x Which means the true IFR would be double the number computed from such studies

      1 reply 4 retweets 74 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      27/n There are also still, after many revisions, studies that have been excluded inappropriately from the estimates This study from Italy, for example, which produces an estimate of 7% (!) for IFR in the regionpic.twitter.com/41OGhRzSoN

      3 replies 3 retweets 63 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      29/n Similarly, there are numerous country-wide efforts not looked at in any way, such as the large population studies conducted in Italy (150,000 participants) and Portugal (2,300 participants)pic.twitter.com/Ur07B0QRpM

      2 replies 1 retweet 56 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      30/n And while there is a very brief discussion of the variation in IFR by region, the main component (age) - as we have demonstrated - was barely addressed, with the author instead focusing on vague speculation about healthcare systemshttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6 …

      1 reply 1 retweet 59 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      31/n We can actually see how age of those infected impacts IFR quite neatly from some of the studies in this review Qatar (0.01%) and Spain (1.15%) look very different, right?pic.twitter.com/kwAOJ4QzCX

      2 replies 2 retweets 63 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

      32/n Wrong! In fact, the difference here is entirely explained by age! In Qatar, infections have mostly been limited to the immigrant worker population (<40 years), with this group representing more than 50% of infectionshttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1300938689535565824?s=20 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      Replying to @Brian_Orak @greg_travis and 2 others
      Yes indeed, and actually this is quite well explained by our recent meta-analysis of IFR by age: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4 … If you use the predicted IFRs here, Qatar is actually a touch higher than expected given that >50% of their infections are <40yo
      2 replies 3 retweets 82 likes
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    10. Exercise Biology‏ @ExerciseBiology 14 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      a letter to the editor?..

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020
      Replying to @ExerciseBiology

      I always feel like what's the point tbh. These are major, inherent flaws that anyone who read the paper and included studies would easily pick out, presumably the editors were aware of the flaws and didn't care

      4:32 PM - 14 Oct 2020
      • 4 Likes
      • AS Poisonous Snack Carly Exercise Biology
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. Exercise Biology‏ @ExerciseBiology 14 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Thanks. yea but would love to see Ioannidis' rebuttal. He is usually good at it.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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