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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      27/n There are also still, after many revisions, studies that have been excluded inappropriately from the estimates This study from Italy, for example, which produces an estimate of 7% (!) for IFR in the regionpic.twitter.com/41OGhRzSoN

      3 replies 3 retweets 63 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      29/n Similarly, there are numerous country-wide efforts not looked at in any way, such as the large population studies conducted in Italy (150,000 participants) and Portugal (2,300 participants)pic.twitter.com/Ur07B0QRpM

      2 replies 1 retweet 56 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      30/n And while there is a very brief discussion of the variation in IFR by region, the main component (age) - as we have demonstrated - was barely addressed, with the author instead focusing on vague speculation about healthcare systemshttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6 …

      1 reply 1 retweet 59 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      31/n We can actually see how age of those infected impacts IFR quite neatly from some of the studies in this review Qatar (0.01%) and Spain (1.15%) look very different, right?pic.twitter.com/kwAOJ4QzCX

      2 replies 2 retweets 63 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

      32/n Wrong! In fact, the difference here is entirely explained by age! In Qatar, infections have mostly been limited to the immigrant worker population (<40 years), with this group representing more than 50% of infectionshttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1300938689535565824?s=20 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      Replying to @Brian_Orak @greg_travis and 2 others
      Yes indeed, and actually this is quite well explained by our recent meta-analysis of IFR by age: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4 … If you use the predicted IFRs here, Qatar is actually a touch higher than expected given that >50% of their infections are <40yo
      2 replies 3 retweets 82 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      33/n Since this group is at a very low risk of death from COVID-19, the population IFR is MUCH lower than in Spain, where infections among the elderly have been much more common

      1 reply 2 retweets 42 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      34/n All of these errors are a shame, because to a certain extent I agree with the author IFR is NOT a fixed category. In the metaregression linked above in the thread, we demonstrated that ~90% of variation in IFR between regions was probably due to the age of those infected!pic.twitter.com/fj0k5oyW2B

      2 replies 10 retweets 69 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      35/n Unfortunately, Prof Ioannidis appears not to have read this study, but if you are interested here is the preprint version to perusehttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6 …

      1 reply 3 retweets 57 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      36/n Anyway, there are numerous errors remaining in the text that I haven't pointed out, but if you've reached this far in the thread I'm sure you're tired of me telling them to you straight up. Have a really careful look and see if you can find them!

      1 reply 0 retweets 40 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      37/n (As a start, there is now a representative population estimate from Wuhan out that implies an IFR SUBSTANTIALLY lower than the ones inferred in this paper from samples including hospitalized patients)

      2 replies 0 retweets 36 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      38/n Regardless, the main take-home remains, unfortunately, that this paper is overtly wrong in a number of ways, it does not adhere to even the most basic guidelines for this type of research, and thus the point estimate is probably wrong

      4:23 PM - 14 Oct 2020
      • 6 Retweets
      • 74 Likes
      • Greener Pastures Povl Erik Carstensen Whitney R. Robinson eec Lars Estermann Anjo Joschka Meier Σκληρός Ραβιόλης Dr Dominic Pimenta
      5 replies 6 retweets 74 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

          39/n Sorry, typo in tweet 37 - should read an IFR SUBSTANTIALLY *higher*, not lower. The SEROPREVALENCE is lower (at ~2%) which implies an IFR of ~1.2%

          3 replies 1 retweet 49 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

          40/n Oh, on an unrelated sidenote, it's quite funny that the author spends some time arguing that using a median is more appropriate than doing a R-E meta-analysis (as @LeaMerone and I did), so I quickly calculated the median for our study and it is higher at 0.79% for IFR 😂pic.twitter.com/QTkJKNzMnb

          12 replies 1 retweet 70 likes
          Show this thread
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Swapnil Hiremath‏ @hswapnil 14 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Unroll @threadreaderapp

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Thread Reader App‏ @threadreaderapp 14 Oct 2020
          Replying to @hswapnil

          Hallo, the unroll you asked for: @GidMK: John Ioannidis, of "Most Published Research Findings Are False" fame, has now had his paper on IFR published… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1316511734115385344.html … See you soon. 🤖

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Boris Barbour‏ @BorisBarbour 14 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Ioannidis' initial guess of low mortality assumed only 1% of the population would be infected! He's been trying to avoid admitting that error ever since. That's why he's focusing on the IFR instead.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Boris Barbour‏ @BorisBarbour 14 Oct 2020
          Replying to @BorisBarbour @GidMK

          "... assume ... that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths."https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ …

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Ivy‏ @ivyleaf_3 14 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Have you written to the publication? This is quite disturbing to me. I mean, what is the peer review process for, if not to identify and fix these things before final publication. Perhaps I'm a little naive, but...

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Wokest‏ @FratboyMarxist 14 Oct 2020
          Replying to @ivyleaf_3 @GidMK

          This was peer reviewed. @gidmk is just wrong.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Wokest‏ @FratboyMarxist 14 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          You're just running cover.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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