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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      18/n Then we have blood donors, who again may give an erroneous result. These are people who, DURING A PANDEMIC are happy to go out and about and give blood. It is quite possible that they are MORE likely to have been infected than the general population!pic.twitter.com/0ME5x1br1B

      4 replies 5 retweets 101 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      18.5/n There are also a lot of included studies from places in which there is almost certainly an enormous undercount of deaths For example, India, where the official death counts may represent a substantial underestimatehttps://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m2859 …

      2 replies 11 retweets 91 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      19/n A very basic, reasonable thing to do would be to conduct a sensitivity analysis excluding these biased estimates, to see what happens when you only use representative population estimates Which we can do

      1 reply 1 retweet 80 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      20/n If we take the median of only these somewhat good-quality studies (some of them still aren't great, but at least they're not clearly inappropriate), we get a value of 0.5% Double the estimate of 0.27%pic.twitter.com/tQSICfngT9

      2 replies 13 retweets 111 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      21/n I thought at this point I'd briefly look at blood donor studies, because they are an interesting case study The author argues that these should be included because, due to "healthy volunteer bias", at worse any estimate should bias the IFR results upwardspic.twitter.com/zfMeDdKKgn

      2 replies 2 retweets 59 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      22/n Well, we can now actually test this theory and see if it is true. Enough studies have been done that we have COVID-19 seroprevalence estimates from BOTH blood donor studies AND representative samples and compare them

      1 reply 2 retweets 60 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      23/n For example, in England an ongoing study on blood donors by PHE estimates that 8.5% of the population has developed antibodies to COVID-19 However, the ONS with their massive randomized study puts the figure at 6% insteadpic.twitter.com/ocnYbQoazk

      1 reply 3 retweets 70 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      24/n In Denmark, a robust population estimate put the figure at 1.1%, while their blood donor study estimates 1.9% have been infected previouslypic.twitter.com/BT1eqgjtuT

      4 replies 3 retweets 64 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020

      25/n Indeed, in every location where both a non-probabilistic, convenience sample has been taken (not just blood donors) AS WELL AS a well-done population estimate, the convenience sample overestimates the seroprevalence

      3 replies 4 retweets 91 likes
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    10. Lucre Snooker‏ @LucreSnooker 14 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      would you consider the New York study showing ~20% seroprevalence to be a convenience sample subject to this problem?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 14 Oct 2020
      Replying to @LucreSnooker

      It is certainly a convenience sample, and I would not be surprised if it was somewhat of an overestimate, but it's hard to say how much because they did put some effort into being more representative

      4:17 PM - 14 Oct 2020
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      • Lucre Snooker
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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