20/n If we take the median of only these somewhat good-quality studies (some of them still aren't great, but at least they're not clearly inappropriate), we get a value of 0.5% Double the estimate of 0.27%pic.twitter.com/tQSICfngT9
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32/n Wrong! In fact, the difference here is entirely explained by age! In Qatar, infections have mostly been limited to the immigrant worker population (<40 years), with this group representing more than 50% of infectionshttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1300938689535565824?s=20 …
33/n Since this group is at a very low risk of death from COVID-19, the population IFR is MUCH lower than in Spain, where infections among the elderly have been much more common
34/n All of these errors are a shame, because to a certain extent I agree with the author IFR is NOT a fixed category. In the metaregression linked above in the thread, we demonstrated that ~90% of variation in IFR between regions was probably due to the age of those infected!pic.twitter.com/fj0k5oyW2B
35/n Unfortunately, Prof Ioannidis appears not to have read this study, but if you are interested here is the preprint version to perusehttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6 …
36/n Anyway, there are numerous errors remaining in the text that I haven't pointed out, but if you've reached this far in the thread I'm sure you're tired of me telling them to you straight up. Have a really careful look and see if you can find them!
37/n (As a start, there is now a representative population estimate from Wuhan out that implies an IFR SUBSTANTIALLY lower than the ones inferred in this paper from samples including hospitalized patients)
38/n Regardless, the main take-home remains, unfortunately, that this paper is overtly wrong in a number of ways, it does not adhere to even the most basic guidelines for this type of research, and thus the point estimate is probably wrong
39/n Sorry, typo in tweet 37 - should read an IFR SUBSTANTIALLY *higher*, not lower. The SEROPREVALENCE is lower (at ~2%) which implies an IFR of ~1.2%
40/n Oh, on an unrelated sidenote, it's quite funny that the author spends some time arguing that using a median is more appropriate than doing a R-E meta-analysis (as @LeaMerone and I did), so I quickly calculated the median for our study and it is higher at 0.79% for IFR
pic.twitter.com/QTkJKNzMnb
Age is overwhelming important as a risk factor. Clear enough that most people could see it even if dead, buried, and pushing up daisies.
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