Useful discussion of COVID dynamics internationallly: https://www.ft.com/content/5b96ee2d-9ced-46ae-868f-43c9d8df1ecb …pic.twitter.com/QYsKUauuCo
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Fair enough. It's true that the probabilistically sampled national seroprevalence estimate for Lombardy was 7.5%, but I can't find the numbers broken down smaller than that unfortunately
Actually, I wonder if you could in theory estimate the proportion of people who have been infected in the smaller areas, using the demonstrable overall prevalence and the differences in infection numbers now?
If you trust that antibody study then yes I think this would be pretty reasonable. One other thing is that even significant numbers of cases in these places don't necessarily mean that R>1 there; it could also be explained by R<1 or R~1 but with constant introductions from...
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