Useful discussion of COVID dynamics internationallly: https://www.ft.com/content/5b96ee2d-9ced-46ae-868f-43c9d8df1ecb …pic.twitter.com/QYsKUauuCo
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TBH it's very hard to do, but there were reports that Bergamo had ~50% infected. Given that, you'd expect the spread of disease to be quite dramatically reduced, at least in the short term, especially using a more heterogenous assumption for HI
Those reports were mistaken.https://twitter.com/WesPegden/status/1270733017393364999?s=19 …
Fair enough. It's true that the probabilistically sampled national seroprevalence estimate for Lombardy was 7.5%, but I can't find the numbers broken down smaller than that unfortunately
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