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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Adam Kucharski‏Verified account @AdamJKucharski 13 Oct 2020

      Useful discussion of COVID dynamics internationallly: https://www.ft.com/content/5b96ee2d-9ced-46ae-868f-43c9d8df1ecb …pic.twitter.com/QYsKUauuCo

      15 replies 81 retweets 210 likes
    2. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 13 Oct 2020
      Replying to @AdamJKucharski

      These correlations look different in more local data. I.e., below is the local data within Lombardy, from the NYT. Case counts per capita this week (4th # column) are anti-correlated with total per capita case counts (2nd # column). (I haven't seen more local data for Spain.)pic.twitter.com/0EbdhifYIi

      4 replies 4 retweets 30 likes
    3. Adam Kucharski‏Verified account @AdamJKucharski 13 Oct 2020
      Replying to @WesPegden

      Yes, would make sense to see stronger pattern at finer scale – at the extreme (i.e. individual level), would obviously expect inverse correlation (because some people immune and others not). Question is at what resolution this ends up affecting overall dynamics.

      2 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
    4. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 13 Oct 2020
      Replying to @AdamJKucharski @WesPegden

      Local Italian data v interesting. Here’s cumulative vs recent cases, all provinces, Lombardy highlighted. Suggests where case rates got *very* high in first wave, acquired immunity is dampening resurgence. Caveats on small sample + cases data + outliers, but worth considering.pic.twitter.com/5WRAeZ9SsO

      22 replies 22 retweets 86 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Oct 2020
      Replying to @jburnmurdoch @AdamJKucharski @WesPegden

      Interesting! Would be great to see this mapped against the predicted reduction in cases using a classic herd immunity model, because at a glance it actually seems like there's less dampening there than we'd expect

      2:14 PM - 13 Oct 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 13 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @jburnmurdoch @AdamJKucharski

          What is the calculation you're doing in your head here? E.g. what ratio of infections to cases are you using?

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Oct 2020
          Replying to @WesPegden @jburnmurdoch @AdamJKucharski

          TBH it's very hard to do, but there were reports that Bergamo had ~50% infected. Given that, you'd expect the spread of disease to be quite dramatically reduced, at least in the short term, especially using a more heterogenous assumption for HI

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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