Useful discussion of COVID dynamics internationallly: https://www.ft.com/content/5b96ee2d-9ced-46ae-868f-43c9d8df1ecb …pic.twitter.com/QYsKUauuCo
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Interesting! Would be great to see this mapped against the predicted reduction in cases using a classic herd immunity model, because at a glance it actually seems like there's less dampening there than we'd expect
What is the calculation you're doing in your head here? E.g. what ratio of infections to cases are you using?
TBH it's very hard to do, but there were reports that Bergamo had ~50% infected. Given that, you'd expect the spread of disease to be quite dramatically reduced, at least in the short term, especially using a more heterogenous assumption for HI
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