This piece makes numerous factual errors, happy to point them out to you if you are interested in facts Adam
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Replying to @GidMK
That's ok. You can stay on the wrong side of history. Let's touch base in a year or so.
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Replying to @Adam_Creighton
Oh I'm not talking policy differences, I'm saying there are numerical and other errors in the piece. Things that are quite clearly factual mistakes, and are demonstrably incorrect
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Replying to @ReykjavikEmilio @Adam_Creighton
Ok. This number is incorrect. The infection-fatality rate of COVID-19 varies based on age, as does the severity of disease, but hospitalization rates are above 1% of those infected pretty much everywherepic.twitter.com/O94QbIEsIu
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Even if we define 'mild disease' as 'any infection not requiring hospitalization', the 99% figure is simply incorrect
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Whether Melbourne is the 'world's harshest lockdown' is perhaps open to debate, but it is quite uncontroversial to point out that other places (i.e. Wuhan) have probably had harsher onespic.twitter.com/oMM3PQtx8d
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This is simply a misunderstanding of ICU capacity. Most ICUs in Aus operate at 85-90% occupancy on a regular day, so in fact the "capacity" of the state is more like 50-100 free beds rather than a simple countpic.twitter.com/ftjuG1r4nw
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This line is incorrect, at least for Australia. According to the AIHW, for permanent aged care residents the average length of stay is about 3 years, not 2, with 91% of stays ending in death https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/aged-care/residential-aged-care-in-australia-2010-11-a-stat/contents/summary …pic.twitter.com/6991cSvFbp
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This statement is factually incorrect and misleading. WHEN WE TAKE MILD/ASYMPTOMATIC CASES INTO ACCOUNT, and calculate IFR (rather than CFR), the death rate for those under (say) 60 is about 1 in 1,000pic.twitter.com/a0IoT6qMfX
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(For the above statement, it is possible that it is correct but simply referencing a very specific definition of "relatively healthy person" that is not common parlance, and so may be misleading rather than wrong)
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