""As a public health scientist it is stunning to see how focused people are on this one disease and on the short term." And how focused on looking morally superior on social media at zero cost to themselves.https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/victoria-s-daniel-andrews-fails-virus-science-test-20201012-p56474 …
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Replying to @Adam_Creighton
This piece makes numerous factual errors, happy to point them out to you if you are interested in facts Adam
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Replying to @GidMK
That's ok. You can stay on the wrong side of history. Let's touch base in a year or so.
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Replying to @Adam_Creighton
Oh I'm not talking policy differences, I'm saying there are numerical and other errors in the piece. Things that are quite clearly factual mistakes, and are demonstrably incorrect
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Replying to @ReykjavikEmilio @Adam_Creighton
Ok. This number is incorrect. The infection-fatality rate of COVID-19 varies based on age, as does the severity of disease, but hospitalization rates are above 1% of those infected pretty much everywherepic.twitter.com/O94QbIEsIu
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Even if we define 'mild disease' as 'any infection not requiring hospitalization', the 99% figure is simply incorrect
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Whether Melbourne is the 'world's harshest lockdown' is perhaps open to debate, but it is quite uncontroversial to point out that other places (i.e. Wuhan) have probably had harsher onespic.twitter.com/oMM3PQtx8d
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This is simply a misunderstanding of ICU capacity. Most ICUs in Aus operate at 85-90% occupancy on a regular day, so in fact the "capacity" of the state is more like 50-100 free beds rather than a simple countpic.twitter.com/ftjuG1r4nw
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This line is incorrect, at least for Australia. According to the AIHW, for permanent aged care residents the average length of stay is about 3 years, not 2, with 91% of stays ending in death https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/aged-care/residential-aged-care-in-australia-2010-11-a-stat/contents/summary …pic.twitter.com/6991cSvFbp
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This statement is factually incorrect and misleading. WHEN WE TAKE MILD/ASYMPTOMATIC CASES INTO ACCOUNT, and calculate IFR (rather than CFR), the death rate for those under (say) 60 is about 1 in 1,000pic.twitter.com/a0IoT6qMfX
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(For the above statement, it is possible that it is correct but simply referencing a very specific definition of "relatively healthy person" that is not common parlance, and so may be misleading rather than wrong)
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