4/n On the first point, it is quite clear that lockdowns are associated with greater economic decline. Countries with harsher lockdowns saw worse financial outcomespic.twitter.com/X4qrhJ79c6
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15/n And important to note that this work is subject to very substantial limitations, and it is really quite hard to disentangle the relationships herepic.twitter.com/UMUmEwoXYt
16/n To sum up: - lockdowns cause harms - so does COVID-19 - in some situations, a lockdown may be economically beneficial - if lockdowns are pursued, short tight ones may be better than long loose ones - more research is needed to discern precisely which policies are bestpic.twitter.com/42W90wvNMw
17/n It's also worth noting, as the IMF does, that other public health policies play an important role that is hard to capture in this analysis. Places with really good testing and contact tracing may avoid many of these issues entirely
28/n Alternatively, as was the case where I live, a short sharp lockdown to improve testing/tracing capacity may be a very good option long-term
Similar to what analyses I've seen on 1918 experience. I think the St Louis Fed did a piece where they had a go at this. Also East Asian countries this time round.
This is exactly what @endCOVID19 has been saying all along
@DFisman @IrfanDhalla @ChiefSciCan @DGBassani @jvipondmd @PediHatrick @John1MD @AmyTanMD @DrZoeHyde @itosettiMD_MBA @DrPieterPeach
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