2/n The report is here, and well worth reading. At the outset I should say that ALL OF THIS EVIDENCE IS UNCERTAIN The IMF is great, and has tried very hard to be accurate, but it is important to take care when reading these findingshttps://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020 …
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13/n Moreoever, lockdown STRINGENCY and LENGTH was important. Protracted mild lockdowns were associated with long tail ends of economic harm, but a much smaller reduction in casespic.twitter.com/qic5qmNw2O
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14/n On the other hand, short sharp lockdowns tended to substantially reduce cases with less economic damage (because fewer cases means a faster recovery), leading to this recommendationpic.twitter.com/ZyluGMIKGQ
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15/n And important to note that this work is subject to very substantial limitations, and it is really quite hard to disentangle the relationships herepic.twitter.com/UMUmEwoXYt
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16/n To sum up: - lockdowns cause harms - so does COVID-19 - in some situations, a lockdown may be economically beneficial - if lockdowns are pursued, short tight ones may be better than long loose ones - more research is needed to discern precisely which policies are bestpic.twitter.com/42W90wvNMw
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17/n It's also worth noting, as the IMF does, that other public health policies play an important role that is hard to capture in this analysis. Places with really good testing and contact tracing may avoid many of these issues entirely
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28/n Alternatively, as was the case where I live, a short sharp lockdown to improve testing/tracing capacity may be a very good option long-term
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End of conversation
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Going thru section "Lockdowns and COVID-19 Infections" & appendix, it's kinda impossible to look behind the curtain, to see how they arrived at what they arrived at. The paper just gives v simple conclusions, but so much data, so many assumptions underlie this, but which & how?
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