Have lockdowns been bad for the economy? A new report from the International Monetary Fund has a very interesting answer to the question 1/npic.twitter.com/AKRip6RZpk
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12/n While locking down was usually associated with a reduction in COVID-19 cases, the IMF found that in places where there were already many cases the impact was much lowerpic.twitter.com/P9dyKhKsSh
13/n Moreoever, lockdown STRINGENCY and LENGTH was important. Protracted mild lockdowns were associated with long tail ends of economic harm, but a much smaller reduction in casespic.twitter.com/qic5qmNw2O
14/n On the other hand, short sharp lockdowns tended to substantially reduce cases with less economic damage (because fewer cases means a faster recovery), leading to this recommendationpic.twitter.com/ZyluGMIKGQ
15/n And important to note that this work is subject to very substantial limitations, and it is really quite hard to disentangle the relationships herepic.twitter.com/UMUmEwoXYt
16/n To sum up: - lockdowns cause harms - so does COVID-19 - in some situations, a lockdown may be economically beneficial - if lockdowns are pursued, short tight ones may be better than long loose ones - more research is needed to discern precisely which policies are bestpic.twitter.com/42W90wvNMw
17/n It's also worth noting, as the IMF does, that other public health policies play an important role that is hard to capture in this analysis. Places with really good testing and contact tracing may avoid many of these issues entirely
28/n Alternatively, as was the case where I live, a short sharp lockdown to improve testing/tracing capacity may be a very good option long-term
If mobility changes were largely voluntary, then how much additional public health benefits do lockdowns confer?
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