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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Oct 2020

      Have lockdowns been bad for the economy? A new report from the International Monetary Fund has a very interesting answer to the question 1/npic.twitter.com/AKRip6RZpk

      13 replies 127 retweets 233 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Oct 2020

      2/n The report is here, and well worth reading. At the outset I should say that ALL OF THIS EVIDENCE IS UNCERTAIN The IMF is great, and has tried very hard to be accurate, but it is important to take care when reading these findingshttps://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020 …

      5 replies 10 retweets 41 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Oct 2020

      3/n The basic summation is simple: - lockdowns probably cause economic harm - large outbreaks of COVID-19 also cause harm - it is hard to disentangle this complexity - there are almost certainly situations in which lockdowns are beneficial to the economypic.twitter.com/IaDilRtB8Y

      2 replies 17 retweets 70 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Oct 2020

      4/n On the first point, it is quite clear that lockdowns are associated with greater economic decline. Countries with harsher lockdowns saw worse financial outcomespic.twitter.com/X4qrhJ79c6

      3 replies 9 retweets 37 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Oct 2020

      5/n BUT, as the IMF notes, lockdowns were not the only issue! When cases rose very quickly, people VOLUNTARILY reduced their mobility to similar levels as when governments took action

      1 reply 13 retweets 60 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Oct 2020

      6/n The IMF modelling suggests that lockdowns were associated with a short-lived drop of ~25% in mobility However, for every doubling of daily COVID-19 cases, there was an associated LONG-lived drop of ~2.5%pic.twitter.com/8eOAjBR0Ou

      1 reply 11 retweets 52 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Oct 2020

      7/n In fact, the IMF estimates that in advanced economies this VOLUNTARY restriction had the biggest impact on mobility (and thus the economy) NOT lockdownspic.twitter.com/whqVhqspw6

      2 replies 24 retweets 72 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Oct 2020

      8/n This leads to an interesting point, which is that if people feel like they are still at risk from COVID-19, the impact of relaxing restrictions economically is very low, but the impact on new cases is quite high So, relaxing lockdowns early may be DETRIMENTAL economicallypic.twitter.com/swUsKHua3U

      4:57 PM - 12 Oct 2020
      • 25 Retweets
      • 91 Likes
      • DocHugson CovidSolutions Jess Deming✌️ james t Angela Eady Ⓥ Rich Sanders MaryMac A M Rotenstein CoconutTank 💚💜 🖤 βLACK LIVES MATTER! 🖤
      2 replies 25 retweets 91 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Oct 2020

          9/n Depressingly, this also means that there is no easy answer here - despite what the contrarians have been saying, it's unlikely that simply lifting all restrictions will lead to immediate economic recoverypic.twitter.com/ah34q1tjUZ

          3 replies 8 retweets 50 likes
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        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Oct 2020

          10/n Also depressingly, the IMF found strong evidence that the negative impact of lockdowns was felt disproportionately, with women and younger people bearing the brunt of the downturnpic.twitter.com/MSnDzTqDQ5

          2 replies 8 retweets 38 likes
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        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Oct 2020

          11/n There are also some very important implications here for public policy in terms of HOW lockdowns and other measures are introduced For example, while all lockdowns carry economic harms, some may not confer public health benefits!

          2 replies 5 retweets 25 likes
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        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Oct 2020

          12/n While locking down was usually associated with a reduction in COVID-19 cases, the IMF found that in places where there were already many cases the impact was much lowerpic.twitter.com/P9dyKhKsSh

          2 replies 5 retweets 24 likes
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        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Oct 2020

          13/n Moreoever, lockdown STRINGENCY and LENGTH was important. Protracted mild lockdowns were associated with long tail ends of economic harm, but a much smaller reduction in casespic.twitter.com/qic5qmNw2O

          1 reply 12 retweets 33 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Oct 2020

          14/n On the other hand, short sharp lockdowns tended to substantially reduce cases with less economic damage (because fewer cases means a faster recovery), leading to this recommendationpic.twitter.com/ZyluGMIKGQ

          3 replies 17 retweets 65 likes
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        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Oct 2020

          15/n And important to note that this work is subject to very substantial limitations, and it is really quite hard to disentangle the relationships herepic.twitter.com/UMUmEwoXYt

          1 reply 2 retweets 23 likes
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        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Oct 2020

          16/n To sum up: - lockdowns cause harms - so does COVID-19 - in some situations, a lockdown may be economically beneficial - if lockdowns are pursued, short tight ones may be better than long loose ones - more research is needed to discern precisely which policies are bestpic.twitter.com/42W90wvNMw

          6 replies 31 retweets 78 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Oct 2020

          17/n It's also worth noting, as the IMF does, that other public health policies play an important role that is hard to capture in this analysis. Places with really good testing and contact tracing may avoid many of these issues entirely

          4 replies 11 retweets 45 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 12 Oct 2020

          28/n Alternatively, as was the case where I live, a short sharp lockdown to improve testing/tracing capacity may be a very good option long-term

          3 replies 10 retweets 44 likes
          Show this thread
        12. End of conversation

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