2/n The report is here, and well worth reading. At the outset I should say that ALL OF THIS EVIDENCE IS UNCERTAIN The IMF is great, and has tried very hard to be accurate, but it is important to take care when reading these findingshttps://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020 …
-
-
Show this thread
-
3/n The basic summation is simple: - lockdowns probably cause economic harm - large outbreaks of COVID-19 also cause harm - it is hard to disentangle this complexity - there are almost certainly situations in which lockdowns are beneficial to the economypic.twitter.com/IaDilRtB8Y
Show this thread -
4/n On the first point, it is quite clear that lockdowns are associated with greater economic decline. Countries with harsher lockdowns saw worse financial outcomespic.twitter.com/X4qrhJ79c6
Show this thread -
5/n BUT, as the IMF notes, lockdowns were not the only issue! When cases rose very quickly, people VOLUNTARILY reduced their mobility to similar levels as when governments took action
Show this thread -
6/n The IMF modelling suggests that lockdowns were associated with a short-lived drop of ~25% in mobility However, for every doubling of daily COVID-19 cases, there was an associated LONG-lived drop of ~2.5%pic.twitter.com/8eOAjBR0Ou
Show this thread -
7/n In fact, the IMF estimates that in advanced economies this VOLUNTARY restriction had the biggest impact on mobility (and thus the economy) NOT lockdownspic.twitter.com/whqVhqspw6
Show this thread -
8/n This leads to an interesting point, which is that if people feel like they are still at risk from COVID-19, the impact of relaxing restrictions economically is very low, but the impact on new cases is quite high So, relaxing lockdowns early may be DETRIMENTAL economicallypic.twitter.com/swUsKHua3U
Show this thread -
9/n Depressingly, this also means that there is no easy answer here - despite what the contrarians have been saying, it's unlikely that simply lifting all restrictions will lead to immediate economic recoverypic.twitter.com/ah34q1tjUZ
Show this thread -
10/n Also depressingly, the IMF found strong evidence that the negative impact of lockdowns was felt disproportionately, with women and younger people bearing the brunt of the downturnpic.twitter.com/MSnDzTqDQ5
Show this thread -
11/n There are also some very important implications here for public policy in terms of HOW lockdowns and other measures are introduced For example, while all lockdowns carry economic harms, some may not confer public health benefits!
Show this thread -
12/n While locking down was usually associated with a reduction in COVID-19 cases, the IMF found that in places where there were already many cases the impact was much lowerpic.twitter.com/P9dyKhKsSh
Show this thread -
13/n Moreoever, lockdown STRINGENCY and LENGTH was important. Protracted mild lockdowns were associated with long tail ends of economic harm, but a much smaller reduction in casespic.twitter.com/qic5qmNw2O
Show this thread -
14/n On the other hand, short sharp lockdowns tended to substantially reduce cases with less economic damage (because fewer cases means a faster recovery), leading to this recommendationpic.twitter.com/ZyluGMIKGQ
Show this thread -
15/n And important to note that this work is subject to very substantial limitations, and it is really quite hard to disentangle the relationships herepic.twitter.com/UMUmEwoXYt
Show this thread -
16/n To sum up: - lockdowns cause harms - so does COVID-19 - in some situations, a lockdown may be economically beneficial - if lockdowns are pursued, short tight ones may be better than long loose ones - more research is needed to discern precisely which policies are bestpic.twitter.com/42W90wvNMw
Show this thread -
17/n It's also worth noting, as the IMF does, that other public health policies play an important role that is hard to capture in this analysis. Places with really good testing and contact tracing may avoid many of these issues entirely
Show this thread -
28/n Alternatively, as was the case where I live, a short sharp lockdown to improve testing/tracing capacity may be a very good option long-term
Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.