Good, you have cited the report from IMF. In the IHR (2005), travel and trade restriction is not recommended during pandemic. Therefore WHO as the technical agency responsible for the IHR (2005) implementation, remain reluctant on the lockdown (area quarantine) policy.
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I think it's worth noting that the previous recommendations on travel were based on modelling exercises for influenza pandemics, and while it was the best we could do at the time the evidence has definitely changed this year
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Sweden, with its lax lockdown had virtually the same GDP drop in first half of 2020 as did its neighboring Nordic counterparts (Norway, Finland, Denmark). Much of the economic impacts are from *voluntary* distancing. Nobody is going to movie theaters even where they are open.
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Maybe they're worth it if they save lives?
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I'm just interested what is your opinion about model from The Economist, which claim that ~10% globally was infected (what is consistent with last WHO statement). https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-archive-united-nations-54a3a5869c9ae4ee623497691e796083 … https://twitter.com/JamesFransham/status/1309560066866065409?s=20 … It implies much lower IFR (<0,3%) Thanks!
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The piece is behind a paywall so can't see the methodology, but I'd guess the issue comes from using some of the very bad serosurveys and applying them at a population level, thus overestimating COVID-19 prevalence
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Excellent article. Hope you will delve deeper into this subject!
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Hi Gid, interesting article.Can u elaborate on the claim that reinfection can occur & therefore herd immunity is not achievable? A reply claimed that official reinfection rate is 0.1% Firstly is that the case atm? And secondly if reinfection is real then is a vax is not useless?
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Like your avatar. Great how the car is looking at the camera.pic.twitter.com/aHQEJA3S8u
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