20/n Rather than delving into the reasons why these numbers are likely inaccurate, I'll just link to my previous threads looking at the preprint version of this paperhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1283232023402868737?s=20 …
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd
20/n Rather than delving into the reasons why these numbers are likely inaccurate, I'll just link to my previous threads looking at the preprint version of this paperhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1283232023402868737?s=20 …
Health Nerd added,
21/n Of note, however, the author makes a classic statistical error in dichotomizing age into two buckets We now know that the risk from age is CONTINUOUS, and so looking at the arbitrary cutoff of 70 years will lead to an erroneous resultpic.twitter.com/EBQ3MVCLXT
22/n The author also makes the interesting claim that the WHO has estimated an infection rate of 10% of the world, referencing a recent news reportpic.twitter.com/yup98Ftm2Q
Health Nerd Retweeted Marc Bevand
23/n However, as @zorinaq has pointed out, this is simply bad reporting, with the WHO arguing that LESS THAN 10% of the world is likely infected
This is, perhaps, an issue with relying on headlines in a scientific paperhttps://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1314160523613593600?s=20 …
Health Nerd added,
24/n There are, sadly, further errors in the paper. The author repeats a common myth, that t-cells mean that the threshold for herd immunity is much lower than usually estimatedpic.twitter.com/q1sPO5voVd
Health Nerd Retweeted Prof. Shane Crotty
25/n Interestingly, Ioannidis here cites @profshanecrotty, who has a great thread on why this interpretation is incorrecthttps://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1313580981341712386?s=20 …
Health Nerd added,
26/n Now, I actually think that all of these errors are a real shame, because the final parts of the commentary are both interesting and worth considering
The real shame is the condescending scrutiny of evidence based scientists like Ioannidis, harassed and censored when non scientist lockdown opportunists like Thomas Pueyo write pieces in CNN and NYT with no resistance or scrutiny.
Ioannidis has been cited 100s of times in reference to COVID-19 already this year, and has appeared on national/international news at least a few times a week. We can disagree about the evidence, but it is simply nonsense to say that he has been 'censored' in any meaningful way
Do you disagree on the point about Pueyo?
Not really, his analyses are very sensational but throughout have often made basic epidemiological mistakes
Basic yes, his startup also raised more capital this year than any other. $80 million
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