16/n The author then argues (again, citing himself liberally in references 3 and 41) that many deaths due to COVID-19 were "avoidable" None of this is really well-supported as far as I can tellpic.twitter.com/j1re0nfhgE
Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him
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16/n The author then argues (again, citing himself liberally in references 3 and 41) that many deaths due to COVID-19 were "avoidable" None of this is really well-supported as far as I can tellpic.twitter.com/j1re0nfhgE
17/n For example, the claim that "many deaths" in Lombardy were due to nosocomial (acquired though healthcare) infections is referenced back to the same April commentary as before, which itself actually suggests that hospital overcrowding was to blamepic.twitter.com/0vyrg6GCo6
18/n It's also worth noting that the idea that nosocomial infections are AVOIDABLE in a pandemic is perhaps not entirely reasonable, given the burden that it places on the healthcare system more broadly
19/n The author then looks at the infection-fatality rate of COVID-19, again liberally citing his (as-yet-unpublished) review on the topicpic.twitter.com/ybU8RBhny9
Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd
20/n Rather than delving into the reasons why these numbers are likely inaccurate, I'll just link to my previous threads looking at the preprint version of this paperhttps://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1283232023402868737?s=20 …
Health Nerd added,
21/n Of note, however, the author makes a classic statistical error in dichotomizing age into two buckets We now know that the risk from age is CONTINUOUS, and so looking at the arbitrary cutoff of 70 years will lead to an erroneous resultpic.twitter.com/EBQ3MVCLXT
22/n The author also makes the interesting claim that the WHO has estimated an infection rate of 10% of the world, referencing a recent news reportpic.twitter.com/yup98Ftm2Q
Health Nerd Retweeted Marc Bevand
23/n However, as @zorinaq has pointed out, this is simply bad reporting, with the WHO arguing that LESS THAN 10% of the world is likely infected
This is, perhaps, an issue with relying on headlines in a scientific paperhttps://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1314160523613593600?s=20 …
Health Nerd added,
24/n There are, sadly, further errors in the paper. The author repeats a common myth, that t-cells mean that the threshold for herd immunity is much lower than usually estimatedpic.twitter.com/q1sPO5voVd
Why is this a myth? I get it is very speculative and not something to put all our chips on but myth?
Read the thread I link to in the next tweet. Basically, the t-cell idea is a misunderstanding of how disease parameters such as R0 are calculated, and also of how t-cell immunity functions
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