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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Oct 2020

      Some MYTHS about COVID-19: - that herd immunity is inevitable - that epidemiologists love lockdowns - that it is less lethal than flu - that we can easily protect "the vulnerable" - that we can "let it rip" without cost

      8 replies 103 retweets 375 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Thomas House‏ @TAH_Sci 10 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @Kit_Yates_Maths

      Please withdraw the first point, or at least define your terms - herd immunity as the term is used by infectious disease specialists is very much an inevitable outcome of a pandemic and you are spreading misinformation.

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Oct 2020
      Replying to @TAH_Sci @Kit_Yates_Maths

      That is incorrect - what many are describing as herd immunity is more commonly termed endemic disease

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Thomas House‏ @TAH_Sci 10 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @Kit_Yates_Maths

      Depends on discipline, but please clarify, otherwise this is just playing with words not explaining the science - at some point the susceptible population will be sufficiently small that transmission slows, agreed? Whether we call this herd immunity or endemicity is secondary.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Oct 2020
      Replying to @TAH_Sci @Kit_Yates_Maths

      It may slow to some extent, but previous pandemics have ended with (e.g. influenza) large seasonal outbreaks, or ongoing transmission (e.g. Zika) or in quite a number of other ways (HIV, Ebola, etc). Endemic disease is very much not herd immunity

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Oct 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @TAH_Sci @Kit_Yates_Maths

      It is true to say that some aspect of herd immunity comes in to play for endemic diseases, because while we are using the term to describe a finite ending it's actually more complex, but I do not agree that a regularly outbreaking endemic disease would be described as HI

      2:56 AM - 10 Oct 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Edgar Häner
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Thomas House‏ @TAH_Sci 10 Oct 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @Kit_Yates_Maths

          Modellers are calling the point when S = 1/R0 the herd immunity threshold, maybe we should change. My main question is, what's the MYTH in the first bullet point? The flu strains in the last four pandemics went endemic & we recognise something fundamental changed when they did.

          3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Oct 2020
          Replying to @TAH_Sci @Kit_Yates_Maths

          Simple - if we end up with a regularly outbreaking endemic disease - as is the case with most 'common cold' coronaviruses - then we won't have reached herd immunity by any reasonable definition

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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