This is factually incorrect. The original models by Ferguson et al, if you actually bother to read them rather than relying on nonsense headlines, were remarkably prescient and almost entirely righthttps://twitter.com/drdavidbull/status/1314128141380706305 …
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Replying to @DocMelbourne @GidMK
He predicted that 510k people would die if no action was taken. Thus far, ~41k have died.
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Replying to @DocMelbourne @GidMK
That was the figure that caused the volte face on the part of government. Given that we are now seeing a global IFR of ~0.13%, the only way we'd have gotten to that number of deaths is if the UK population was 510m people.
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Replying to @garrethmcdaid @DocMelbourne
The global IFR isn't 0.13%, that's largely a myth, and the IFR for the UK is very substantially higher due to the age breakdown of the population, at around 1%+
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Yes, but also despite the one quote that's being bandied around the WHO actually said that ~less than~ 10% of people were infected
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